Netflix audiences gravitate towards lean-back, family films and comedies, marking a notable contrast with the kinds of TV shows which get the most viewing.
Films and TV are watched differently on Netflix: films draw more repeat viewing, are more of a communal experience and are highly sought after on weekends.
This explains why Netflix—even without a consistent, broad theatrical strategy—invests heavily in film: it brings in a discrete audience and boosts engagement for most viewers.
Streaming fell back into the red again, although with further price hikes on the way—along with "modest" Disney+ subscriber growth—next quarter should see the beginning of a profitable trajectory
In the UK, Disney+ continues to grow engagement—if not necessarily subscriptions—however, we still await a boost from local scripted originals
While the performance of Disney's core segments appears to be stabilising, 2024 remains a year of unfinished projects
We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.
SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.
On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030
Netflix saw revenue grow 17% YoY (to $9.6 billion) in Q2 with margin continuing to stay healthy at 27%, approaching the levels of legacy media. It appears that the immediate revenue benefits of 'paid sharing' are now dissipating but any shift in perception around paying for the service will continue as a positive
In the UK, older viewers continue to drive viewing growth on the service—they will increasingly dictate whether something is a hit
Despite Netflix's perennial narrative of amplifying the effectiveness of foreign-language programming, English-language content continues to travel better than anything else
Netflix doesn’t think about its audience in terms of traditional demographics, instead it aligns them with ‘taste clusters’, which are formed by thousands of metadata tags on its programmes.
We have replicated Netflix’s approach to content analysis: layering its ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata with viewing data to identify what makes a Netflix hit.
Suspenseful, dark scripted dramas perform best globally, licensed high-volume sitcoms drive viewing in the UK, while unscripted TV has thus far underperformed.
AI integration into production tools throughout media industries will deliver increased productivity for professional content creation. Generally available tools will also improve quality and production speed for individual user-creators.
Roadblocks include the uncertain copyright status of models and their outputs, attitudes of creative workers and consumers, and the AI tech underdelivering versus what was promised. The need to integrate new tools into existing processes is perhaps the biggest brake.
There are stark differences by sector: the opportunities are greatest in games, where costs have ballooned and software engineering is core. Marketing is furthest in exploiting AI, while audiovisual production is more cautious.
On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe.
With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.
This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.
There were no flashy announcements this quarter as Disney highlighted its streaming business—the Entertainment component reaching profitability—with its turnaround offsetting the decline in the embattled Linear segment
In a reasonably stagnant UK SVOD market, Disney+ continues to grow household reach and engagement across almost all age demographics. One driver is its top content, which is more likely to be completed and rewatched than competitors'
Disney is searching for new technology leadership. Its current structure is segmented and depowered, requiring a single leader responsible for overarching technology direction to best combat streaming costs and reach platform scale efficiency
With traffic from Facebook and X to news publishers’ destinations in decline, distribution is shifting to other platforms where they have more control, such as feeds served on WhatsApp and newsletters on LinkedIn
There is no one silver bullet platform to replace Facebook, on which certain publishers became overly reliant, or X. News publishers are trying out a myriad of platforms to see which work best for the specific audiences and use-cases they are cultivating
WhatsApp and LinkedIn are still platforms that are mediated for news publishers, so risks remain. These platforms have highly differentiated alignment with the needs of enterprises producing journalism
Netflix's Q1 revenue was up 15% YoY (to $9.4 billion) bolstered by firm global subscriber growth and the continued momentum of 'paid sharing'. Operating margin is forecast to be 25% across this year (up from 21% in 2023)—approaching the realms of legacy linear media—but transparency will be diluted as the company stops reporting subscribers and ARPU
UK subscriptions and overall engagement are mostly flat; growth by older viewers is masking declines by the young
Even with the strikes driving viewing towards UK content, licensed programming remains a relatively minor factor in Netflix’s library