Broadcaster reach and viewing fell in 2024, but the decline slowed as BVOD growth increasingly makes up for linear decline and the BBC’s viewing grew year-on-year. 

SVOD penetration and engagement returned to (slight) growth in 2024 and video-sharing platforms are increasing their share of TV set viewing.

Broadcasters still offer a wider array of programming than SVODs, but they are expanding their offering, as is YouTube.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

BT had a solid-but-mixed Q3, with revenue growth slightly weaker than expected, EBITDA growth slightly stronger, and subscriber net adds a touch weak across broadband, mobile and Openreach 

The outlook is buoyed by a likely altnet slowdown at some point in FY26, with this set to help subscriber numbers at Consumer/Openreach and pricing at Consumer

The main cloud is the potential effect of a merged Vodafone-Three challenging BT/EE for best network and boosting MVNOs, a challenge we feel is real but manageable for BT

Vodafone has announced that it is looking to launch a satellite direct-to-device service with AST Space Mobile in Europe "later in 2025 and 2026", while also demonstrating the first satellite video call in the UK.

The key challenge for AST Space Mobile is scaling up its constellation, with significant uncertainty remaining around their ability to both manufacture satellites on time and the rockets available to deliver them.

Potential for a full mobile broadband service is a key differentiator versus Starlink's text-only service, and if AST can deliver then Vodafone could be first to market in the UK with a direct-to-device service.

Global streamers have expanded their US premium sports coverage, but this will be difficult to replicate in Europe.

The main obstacle is much lower advertising revenues in European sport.

The concentration of European football rights and small pools of buyers mean that premium sports must be retailed on an opt-in basis.

The mid-sized UK altnets Zzoomm and FullFibre have agreed to merge, in what looks like an all-share merger of (nearly) equals, both of whom have been struggling to raise finance.

Why did they pick each other rather than the larger CityFibre/Netomnia/nexfibre options? Valuation may have been the key factor, but it has left them still vulnerably low scale with further consolidation necessary.

Much more consolidation is required for the sector to be sustainable in our view, and further financial distress may be required for realistic valuations to emerge.

Starlink has unveiled its plans for its next-generation satellites, boasting dramatically more capacity than was anticipated, as it aims to bring gigabit speeds to its broadband users.

This rapid growth in capacity poses the risk of a more commercially aggressive Starlink. While this will amplify its impact on the broadband market, it remains a somewhat niche consumer proposition but with additional B2B appeal.

Amazon's Kuiper is gearing up to begin launching its own satellites. While its target of introducing service later this year is likely to slip, Kuiper will bring an important peer competitor to Starlink, and will be the first time that Amazon's retail and marketing heft enters the UK connectivity market.

Very strong subscription additions in all regions (+16% YoY, to 302 million) drove Netflix's quarterly revenue over $10 billion for the first time (+16% YoY). The advertising push appears to be continuing to dampen ARPU growth, ushering in more price rises

Netflix now has a defined advertising audience that does not watch commercial television—however, for this incremental audience to materially grow, longer-term users must be manoeuvred from the ad-free tiers

Netflix's original content slate has plateaued in major countries. If budgets have to absorb the growth of live content, there will be ramifications on the output of other genres, along with levels of market demand and production costs

Roblox’s rapid redirection towards attracting brands and advertisers with new tools, including programmatic advertising, is a savvy and ultimately necessary strategy to position the company as a global platform for games and entertainment IP

Roblox will comfortably hit 100 million DAUs in 2025, as growth rates begin to run upwards of 25%, aided by aggressive geographic expansion. New content partnerships could accelerate it faster 

For TV and film marketers, led by Netflix, Roblox is becoming a default option for immersive experiences and games, while actively avoiding indirect support for Disney through Fortnite

Service revenue growth dropped further to -1.7% this quarter as pricing remains under pressure and in-contract price increases no longer benefit

Competition is heating up in Germany and France, and Digi is taking an aggressive stance as it enters the Portuguese and Belgian markets

While there is increasing awareness that investment levels in Europe are compromised by the current market structure, support for in-market consolidation remains lukewarm at best at the EU level