Advertising has outgrown the UK's wider economy by 20 percentage points since 2000 thanks to online and advertisers in export markets, especially China, targeting sales in the import-dependent UK market.

If current trends held to 2030, advertising would reach 1.7% of UK GDP, over 50% higher than 2019—we believe this to be the least likely scenario as the UK already sustains higher ad intensity than major markets.

The next recession could be the moment when online ads growth corrects and then reverts to low single-digit growth in line with the economy. A 'soft landing' is also possible, while a surprise outperformance would require more drastic structural shifts.

The erosion of the website’s centrality, and the rise of creators and influencers generates multiple challenges for media –people’s choices have grown enormously. This report highlights consumer behaviour: what people trust and value.

Through a series of case studies we demonstrate people’s needs are resilient: helpful and convenient services with personality that can be trusted, all enhanced by strong community.

Media brands continue to play a critical and trusted role for people to navigate marketplaces, interests and their work life. The role of product –and by extension, the leadership and structure of product development –has grown in importance.

Magazines are in the final phase of industrial-scale print volumes, with the era of artisan print magazines already highly visible and blooming, celebrating the reader’s tangible experience of the design and rich content, drawn by the brand’s authority.

Publishers’ online revenue models have diversified by attracting third-party sources—advertisers, campaign partners and affiliates—alongside a relatively tepid commitment to audience-led revenue models, with exceptions.

Publishers seeking a sustainable digital future by circa 2030 will need to focus more on audiences than on advertisers, leveraging core brands across multiple channels to build community, with print playing a narrower, lucrative and much-loved role.

Online retail is a prime arena for AI implementation, with a high degree of tech involvement and proximity to the point of sale

Generative AI’s near-term prospects are inflated by the hype cycle; instead, improvements to product discovery and logistics will be the next frontiers for growth and AI-driven efficiency

Retailers risk their reputations as they jostle for early mover advantage: larger players Amazon and Shopify through major investments, and SMEs with specialised data and licensing

Online reviews are a vital input for consumer decision-making. However, reviews are easy to manipulate, and widespread fraud is undermining credibility and raising the issue of consumer protection.

Facebook, Google, and Amazon utilise reviews to improve the consumer experience, but also to sell advertising to businesses and to address fraud. These companies leverage their data superiority to better utilise reviews on their platforms, and possess a competitive advantage, versus sites like TripAdvisor, Yelp, and eBay.

Demand for expert opinion remains strong, yet is supplied only by publishers and Which?, a small segment in terms of share of traffic relative to platforms.