In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

Carphone Warehouse’s H1 2011/12 results were overshadowed somewhat by the announcements that it is shutting down its UK ‘big box’ consumer electronics venture and selling its share in the Best Buy US handset business

Its actual core business operating performance was grim, with drops of 12% in volume and 4.5% in like-for-like revenue in the September quarter, with the slashing of prepay subsidies in the UK hitting volumes, and the late arrival of the iPhone 4S hitting revenue

With the iPhone 4S having now launched, H2 is likely to be much better, with like-for-like revenue returning to growth, and a focus on the core business will help in weathering the economic headwinds to come

Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth improved marginally in the September quarter, a very solid performance under tricky circumstances, helped by good competitive performances and judicious pricing measures

The combined Europe and group common function EBITDA margin was again held flat, despite continued smartphone adoption pushing up handset costs, with strong cost control again evident

Pricing, competitive, regulatory and cost trends are all going well; but macroeconomic trends are clearly not, and are likely to make an acceleration in the second half of the year very difficult

Nokia has launched its comeback with two very solid Windows Phone devices at €420 and €270. Next year Nokia, like Apple, will have handsets with uniquely appealing industrial design. However, Nokia will not launch in the USA until 2012 and needs to add cheaper smartphones to the portfolio

Nokia and Microsoft face a hard struggle in establishing a third mobile app ecosystem. However, it is not impossible (Google has managed it in 18 months) and given more devices and the right execution they could manage it

2012 will be the critical year. We believe that the flaws in the Android proposition mean there remains a real window of opportunity. However, if Apple launches a cut-price iPhone then the market will be turned upside-down, again

Q3 results were contradictory, with accelerating demand for enhanced services and resilient revenue, but high churn and weak growth in fundamental cash flow

Cost increases struck us as justifiable in the longer term and were in some cases temporary. We share management’s confidence that there is better news to come, particularly at Virgin Media Business

Nonetheless, we remain of the view that future cash flow growth is likely to be significantly lower than that seen over the past two years, particularly given the deteriorating economic outlook

Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010

Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond

Google’s Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google’s annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn

Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon’s dominance of ebooks

Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table

Media companies should not expect Amazon to be a more congenial partner than Apple. Amazon’s long-term stake in the health of the books or magazine industries is limited: the Kindle is a new way to reach readers and viewers, but not a saviour

Apple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a ‘5’ on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple’s competitive positioning

The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time

Apple’s new ‘Siri’ voice assistant looks very impressive as a USP. If it works, and spreads, it will join apps as a structural problem for Google, drawing people away from web search

In this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request