Entertainment software provided on physical disc – CD, DVD, video games – is in terminal decline. Paradoxically, this means that the content industries need to provide more support to the tangible medium, not less. The disc is still a hugely important part of the revenues of the entertainment sector.

Discs provide irreplaceable services. They can be easily bought on impulse, as a gift and for shared use of family and friends. Even dedicated digital buyers still purchase physical discs of the material that has greatest emotional relevance to them.

People over 35 are generally reluctant to switch to all-digital purchasing. These consumers now buy a clear majority of all entertainment software and will simply stop buying films and music when the disc dies. The content industries should spend more time and effort serving these people, slowing the decline of physical media.

The development of the Digital Britain infrastructure, introduction of tablets, increasing connectivity of TV sets and launch of on demand OTT services over the internet have greatly intensified interest in connected viewing and its impact on the traditional broadcast model No single source of audience measurement for viewing of long- and short- form video content across all screens yet exists, though current market data suggest that connected viewing occupies a c. 8.5% share of total viewing across all screens By 2020, we project the connected viewing share of total viewing across all screens will reach 20%, with tablets being the primary drivers of growth, in part incremental and in part substitutional to viewing to the TV set, where we expect the connected viewing share to remain under 5%

Persistent, anaemic economic growth continues to constrict all spend on recreation and culture, especially for lower income consumers. Female readers, the bedrock of the magazine industry, will be especially hard hit by government austerity measures, which will begin to bite in 2013

Smartphone and tablet ownership amongst wealthier consumers has already impacted their spend on magazines. The industry can expect further shocks as mobile device penetration grows among older and also lower income demographics

New publishing platforms pose familiar challenges: publishers must compete with new online players from very different sectors; complexity and rapid change are a constant; historically low print magazine subscription volumes make the transition for publishers to data strategies and to develop flexible charging models more demanding than might otherwise be the case

Facebook’s announcement of Graph Search, the company’s first move into socially-powered search which now in beta trial in the US, leaves many details unanswered including full launch and monetisation plans. Reliance on user-generated content from Facebook friends limits the usefulness of Graph Search as a conventional search engine and hence its impact on Google and other web search businesses in the near term. In the longer term, Graph Search could become a powerful recommendation engine for certain categories like travel, but its dependence on user data and privacy restrictions are likely to limit its wider utility and revenue potential.

Press advertising performed worse than we expected in 2012, with double digit declines both last year and this year now a very real possibility.

Previously resilient areas of the press have weakened. Popular national titles have seen sharp advertising declines, while faltering circulation in celebrity magazines exposes an underlying decline in demand.

Retail and services advertisers continue to pull spend from print, largely in favour of online, though TV is also very resilient. Industry efforts to offset these structural shifts include the development of trading platforms, further consolidation and a number of commercial editorial tactics.

YouTube continues to evolve away from user-generated content with the expansion of its native Original Channels initiative in the US, Europe and Japan

Professional and semi-professional content is key to increasing YouTube’s sellable video inventory, raising advertising yield and attracting brand advertisers

Whilst YouTube is the leading global distribution platform for professional short-form video, it poses little immediate threat to TV viewing or revenues

Kangaroo, the BBC/ITV/Channel 4 VOD project, looks unlikely to see the light of day any time soon, based on the Competition Commission’s (CC) provisional findings announced on 3rd December

This is the third, after France and The Netherlands, of our reports on NGA in the continent. Deutsche Telekom’s NGA extends fibre to the cabinet, with VDSL for the last mile, to cover 25% of the country’s 37 million homes by end 2008. In our view, DTAG’s strategic rationale on NGA is to develop the IPTV proposition to better counter the competitive challenge on broadband and telephony, in core urban areas, of a resurgent cable. DTAG has already lost considerable double play market share to the altnets, and market positioning is key given the sizeable upside left in the German broadband market

In the attached report, we present an analysis of UK handset sales over the online channel, using data sourced from Mobileshop.com, an online comparison handset sales site. Mobileshop.com presents offers from all major online mobile shops, including those from the operators and the major independent retailers, covering handsets, datacards and SIM-only offerings, across prepay and contract connections. In this, our first report, we have focused on issues relating to the market structure and broad market share figures, and our future quarterly updates will focus more on emerging trends

This report on next generation access in The Netherlands is the second, after France, of our reports on NGA in the continent. KPN’s NGA was initially focused on FTTC+VDSL deployment, to cover 15% of the country’s 6 million homes by end 2009. Since May 2008, KPN has moved aggressively on FTTH, establishing a joint venture with Reggefiber, the country’s leading local ‘open’ network operator. Regulatory approval is pending for the end of 2008. The JV’s coverage could eventually reach 70% of homes, making The Netherlands the leading market for FTTH in Europe.