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BT met its guidance for the year to March 2010, although the improvement this quarter was more modest and concentrated at Global Services

New guidance gives an exceptional level of visibility over the next three years which, although welcome, reflects the challenges which lie ahead

BT has stepped smartly back from the brink but, as management concedes, there is much left to do, particularly at Global Services, which continues to burn cash

 

TTG’s indicative full year financial results were solid, but were flattered by the acquisition of Tiscali UK in July 2009

Subscriber growth at TalkTalk is exceptionally strong thanks to effective marketing and a strong proposition, if somewhat at the expense of the acquired businesses

Guidance for the new financial year looks undemanding given additional uplift from Tiscali UK; further underlying progress will depend crucially on continuing strong growth at TalkTalk and old fashioned operating leverage based on a single set of platforms, rather than new developments such as high speed broadband or TV

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has set out a vision of the social network as the hub of a personalised internet based on real identities and connections – the so called ‘Social Graph’, with Facebook providing the infrastructure

Simplified tools for apps and new social plug-ins for third party sites will increase Facebook’s influence both on and off the core platform, but raise some privacy concerns

These initiatives should help to drive Facebook’s user growth and engagement and ultimately improve monetisation, which we estimate on a per user basis is now more than half that of Microsoft’s online properties

 

 

Sky Q3 2010 adjusted revenues showed strong year-on-year growth of around ten percent in the year to date (10.7%), and in the third quarter (11.1%), marked by strong product sales into its existing subscriber base, especially in HD, but also solid progress in broadband, telephony and line rental

The rise in revenues was more than matched by a rise in costs (up 11.7% in the first nine months); however, this was largely accounted for by a one-off rise in programming costs in the wake of Setanta’s departure in June 2009 and upfront HD investment and direct network costs associated with the strong growth in product take-up

Once the HD and direct network investment costs driving product growth have washed through, Sky appears well on track to deliver operating margin growth into the upper twenties for its TV business and into the high single digits for its telecoms business; which we expect to experience little direct material impact in the next five years from the implementation of the Ofcom wholesale must-offer remedy

 

FT’s domestic fixed line revenue decline accelerated in Q1 2010 as Orange’s broadband subscriber growth continued to disappoint, despite price cuts

FT’s higher service level has sustained premium pricing to date, but competitor altnets are also improving service – FT must run to stay still in a fast moving competitive marketplace

New promotions and/or price cuts for the triple play are required to stabilise Orange’s broadband market share, at the cost of further fixed line revenue decrease

 

Implementation of Ofcom’s wholesale must-offer (WMO) remedy for Sky Sports 1 and 2 is to proceed while the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) hears Sky’s appeal, but subject to conditions which include restricting it to three parties: Virgin Media, BT and Top-Up TV

The settlement marks an important concession by Sky on the principle of enforced wholesale, and seems implicitly to reduce the WMO issue to one of price

DTT viewers should now be able to access live Premier League and other premium sports action on Sky Sports 1 and 2 from the start of the 2010/11 football season; but the ability of BT and Top-Up TV to capitalise depends on several factors, among them the possibility of Sky launching Picnic should it satisfy Ofcom’s limited preconditions for that service

VMed’s Q1 results were again strong, with price increases and opex reduction continuing as the main drivers, underpinned by strengthening volume growth

The company’s recently completed debt refinancing gives management much greater flexibility in deciding how much to reinvest in growing the business

The outlook continues to look very encouraging, with the April price increases, further cost reduction, modest turnarounds at Mobile and Business and improved wholesale terms for Sky content still to come

CPW grew its core European mobile handset distribution business in underlying like-for-like revenue terms by 3% in the March quarter, and its profits grew by 18% in the 2009/10 year, although connection volumes and actual revenue fell during the quarter

Growth is improving with the recovery, but not dramatically, as its strong competitive performance during the recession is unwinding to some extent. Nonetheless, 2010/11 should see continued improvement, with handset trends still generally going in CPW’s direction

The company is currently more than covering the start-up losses at its ‘big box’ consumer electronics business in the UK through steady growth at CPW Europe and dramatic growth in the US, and should continue to do so in 2010/11. However, thereafter there is far more uncertainty, as the big box business will have to start trading well to prevent accelerating losses, and we have no visibility over its prospects as yet

 

A hung Parliament now appears the most likely outcome of the UK general election on 6 May, giving the Liberal Democrats influence, in terms of votes and seats, over the next government

Because the Lib Dems are ideologically closer to Labour than to the Conservatives, we anticipate their influence will favour the policy and regulatory status quo in media and telecommunications in relation to the proposals made by the Conservatives

This influence would be strongest in a coalition of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but also would persist in a Conservative minority government, reducing the likelihood of a new legislative framework for media as proposed by the Conservatives

Google’s UK revenue increased 18% YoY in Q1 to £534 million (net of hedging gains), its highest rate of quarterly growth since the recession started in 2008

Better than expected performance is due to reacceleration in paid search, underpinned by improving levels of retail e-commerce and business and advertiser confidence

We have raised our 2010 forecast for Google UK to 18% YoY growth and for UK online ad spend to £3,875 million, representing a like-for-like rise of 13% YoY