Data on UK fixed line broadband revenueis sparse. Ofcom‘squarterly statistics do not include broadband revenue and neither Virgin Media nor TTG report it. Ofcom’sannual communications market report, published each year in August, includes an estimate of UK fixed broadband, dial-up and related revenue based on non-public data provided by operators. In June this year Ofcom published a provisional estimate of £3.3 billion for 2009 as part of the background to a discussion document on net neutrality

News Corp’s bid for the shares it does not own in BSkyB is unlikely to generate much concern at the OFT because newspapers and TV will be seen as being in separate markets

But, separately, the Secretary of State for Business, Vince Cable, is entitled to make a ‘public interest’ intervention that requires the plurality issue to be assessed alongside the competition investigation over the next few weeks

We think that there is a strong case that the transaction does raise substantial issues of ‘plurality’ as defined in the Court of Appeal judgment on the purchase of ITV shares by BSkyB in 2006.1 Whether the new Secretary of State has the stomach for a fight with the company must be open to substantial doubt

This report provides our annual assessment and forecasts for the recorded music market on the one hand, and the music publishing industry on the other hand. The reason for our dual focus is the key role played by mechanical revenues generated by the sale of recorded music formats in revenues of the music publishing industry, despite their decline since 2000

Revenues from performance (licensing fees from the use of music in broadcasts, music piped in shops or performed live) and synchronisation (music licensed for adverts and TV/film) have proved more resilient. Performance in particular was affected by the severe advertising recession in the music publishing industry’s core markets in 2008/09, whose impact we anticipate will still be felt in 2010

On the whole, however, music publishing revenues should recover and stabilise in our forecast period to 2014.

Launching in the US this autumn, with international rollout due in 2011, Google TV uses enhanced versions of the Android mobile OS and Chrome browser to deliver full access to the internet via ‘Smart TV’ sets and devices

Google TV extends the company’s vision of the open internet to the living room, beyond the PC and mobile, where internet-enabled TV sets will take increasing share, raising search revenues, with potential to take a piece of the $150 billion global TV ad market

Pay TV platform operators’ are unlikely to embrace Google TV to avoid cannibalising their own business models, limiting adoption to free-to-air TV homes, at least initially, and direct revenues are likely to be slow to develop

Overall reported revenue growth in the top 5 European markets increased by 1.6ppts, to growth of -1.7%. With little change in regulation during the quarter, underlying growth also saw a sharp uplift, rising 1.7ppts and building on the 0.4ppts increase seen in the last quarter. The European mobile market is now firmly in recovery following a very difficult 2009

There were approximately 18.7 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of March 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q1 increased for the first time since the early years of the industry, although the increase, from 5.7% to 5.9% was very slight. In our view it should be interpreted as a stabilisation

Looking at net additions in the quarter, Q1 saw the sequential growth drop back to a more normal level of 9% after the 54% spike in the previous quarter, but year-on-year growth, at 21%, was the first really substantial increase since Q3 2005, when market growth was coming to the end of its exponential phase

Newspaper publishers face paper price increases of at least 10% in H2 2010, with higher quality paper used by some book and magazine publishers rising in price by 20%

Paper represents between 10-25% of publisher underlying costs, but their ability to push through costs to the topline by raising cover prices (as they did in 2008/09) or book prices in 2010 appears severely compromised by the declining demand for print media

Voracious demand from China for fibre and in emerging markets generally appears to be the principal cause of rising fibre prices, in a massive swing from West to East in global paper demand, implying a future of escalating paper costs

Subject to BBC Trust approval, Canvas looks almost certain to launch in spring 2011 after the OFT decided that it did not have the jurisdiction to review Canvas under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002. The OFT decision does not rule out complaints on other grounds, but the chances of persuading the regulators look very small

The launch of Canvas promises to strengthen significantly the free-to-air digital terrestrial platform, otherwise very limited compared with satellite and cable platforms in terms of bandwidth, but mass adoption poses numerous challenges and it is open to question whether Canvas will ever extend to more than half the DTT base

In the long term, it is hard not to see Canvas as an interim step in the growing convergence between the TV screen and the internet, raising the question of how successfully its PSB TV-centric approach can adapt to the coming challenges of the full blown digital age

C&W Worldwide’s first set of annual results since demerger were flattered by the inclusion of a full year of Thus

Nonetheless, management has continued to execute well despite difficult market conditions. Excellent cost control generated another year of strong underlying cash flow growth, albeit from a low base

Looking ahead there are grounds for continuing optimism, despite minimal guidance, although the rate of cash flow growth is set to drop, as cost reduction becomes progressively more challenging

This report updates our coverage of the commercial radio sector. In Q1 2010, RAJAR data showed that the average number of hours listened per listener and the total number of hours listened, across both the commercial sector and the BBC, fell by 2.7% and 1.2% respectively compared to Q1 2009. This continues the long term trend of gradual consumption decline we have highlighted in the past. Another consistent trend is the relative robustness of listening to BBC radio, whilst the brunt of the decline is borne by the commercial sector

Whilst BBC radio is funded by the licence fee, the commercial sector relies on advertising, which was severely impacted by the recession in 2008-09, on top of the structural shift of advertising to the internet. Oversupply of radio inventory continues to cause downward pressure on ad rates. As the UK economy exited recession in Q4 2009, commercial revenues rose 6.3% over Q4 2008, after six consecutive quarters of revenue decline. Q1 2010 is expected to come in at approximately 7-8%, with more modest positive growth in Q2

Public sector advertising, which includes procurement by the Central Office of Information (COI), has proved to be a significant source of income for radio (18.9% of revenues in 2009, COI itself accounting for 11.5%). On 24 May George Osborne announced that, with the exception of previously committed and “essential” campaigns, further COI advertising will be put on hold until March 2011. Based on this understanding about COI spend, which will translate to a small negative impact in H2 2010, we expect H2 2010 to be flat. Overall, we forecast small, positive annual growth of commercial segment revenues of 2.5% for 2010

Whilst income is being compressed, the cost of serving dual analogue and digital transmission remains a strain. Ofcom’s ongoing deregulation will have a small positive impact on costs. However, further station closures are entirely possible, especially if COI spend continues to be squeezed