UEFA and Relevent, a newly appointed media rights sales partner, are already surveying the rights market for the next cycle starting in 2027.
With minimal competitive tension in major European markets, incumbent broadcasters are unlikely to increase their bids.
Relevent will, however, try to leverage increased US appetite for soccer to lure a streamer into a global deal.
Looking to 2030, we forecast that broadcaster viewing will continue to decline, driven by a drop in live viewing. Non-live is increasing but will be unable to make up for the total broadcaster shortfall.
Change is demarcated by age: while under-35s will watch more YouTube on the TV, with SVOD steady, the inverse will occur for over-35s.
The heavy-watching over-65s remain mostly insulated from change for now, however, those aged 35-54 are currently undergoing the biggest behavioural shift: beyond 2030 they will eventually carry their modern habits into their time-rich retirements.
Recent deals for Ligue 1, the Fifa Club World Cup and Foxtel signal DAZN is focused on global expansion, but this has postponed group breakeven.
Rights have been renewed at lower costs due to tepid competition and wider uncertainty in the broadcasting landscape, which support its improving margins.
Global scale may be a competitive advantage, but DAZN must still prove that global synergies improve local economics and generate a positive margin.
As smartphone ownership nears saturation in almost all consumer groups, the base for the UK digital economy is widening: media consumption continues to move to connected devices and use of consumer services on mobile grows
Ecommerce is now responsible for 75% of retail growth, steady even during periods of decline for the overall market
Google and Facebook take up almost 90% of gross online advertising growth this year, and the ecommerce and mobile service markets show early signs of platform concentration
Brexit poses direct risks to exports to the Continent of regulated services, such as audiovisual (AV) media services, if the UK ceases to qualify for the Single Market
Since 1994, the EU has formalised a ‘cultural exception’ in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and in all trade agreements aside from the European Economic Area (EEA)
Many countries have emulated the policy since, making it challenging for the UK’s AV cluster to gain significant additional market access from future bilateral trade deals
Snap’s IPO is reportedly pressing ahead as expected, suggesting a remarkably early maturity for the company’s advertising business model
Snapchat creatively adapts the tried and true TV advertising formula, focusing on content, context and audience affinity – this goes against the grain of digital advertising and could unlock new brand budgets for online
After an IPO, Snap’s founders would have the freedom to expand their platform with new content, distribution channels and even devices
Personal data is the fuel of the digital age and the UK is a top producer due to deep internet and ecommerce usage
The EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a key plank of the Digital Single Market (DSM), will directly apply in May 2018, before the date of Brexit in 2019
Upon Brexit, GDPR adoption would ensure easy certification by the Commission for data transfers outside the EU, giving companies another reason to stay in the UK
Google’s recent hardware launch event was a confident assertion of an AI-led future where Google’s services are present for everyone, everywhere
With Google’s Assistant central to them, devices like the Pixel phone and Google Home smart speaker put pressure on Samsung, Apple and Amazon
If Google’s AI push is successful, it will evolve and strengthen the company’s role as a gatekeeper to content and services, fundamentally reshaping search marketing
Brexit will take place in March 2019 and the rush is now on to complete the UK’s exit through Article 50 negotiations and set the framework for post-Brexit trade with the EU
Trade-related investment by companies is at high risk from uncertainty; a free-trade area (FTA) for manufactured products should be a priority for 2019
Barriers to trade in services in the EU are more nebulous than tariffs and far more political in Member States, justifying a Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEP)
Amazon’s smart Echo speakers are coming to Europe, powered by a voice-controlled intelligent assistant, Alexa. Echo is thought to have found surprise success in the US
Alexa is best thought of as the most complete Voice User Interface (VUI) on the market. We expect VUIs to supplant graphical user interfaces for a variety of use-cases, in the home, on the move and in the car. Competition in this area is increasing
Alexa is being positioned as the Android for voice, moving beyond devices made by Amazon in an attempt to jumpstart adoption, and with developers building services on top of Alexa’s core voice platform