VodafoneThree's launch incorporates a number of swift and astute commercial decisions, which is particularly welcome given the challenging balancing act that the company needs to perform

The network upside will be felt quite quickly for Three customers primarily, with protection for Vodafone customers built in. Longer-term, the Government policy shift towards better coverage may require investment beyond the committed £11bn plan 

We view some moves as helpful to prospects in the broadband market, others less so, and continue to have question marks about the attractiveness of this segment for VodafoneThree

BT hit its FY25 guidance of a modest revenue decline coupled with modest EBITDA growth, and expects more of the same in FY26.

The highlight of the results was consumer broadband returning to subscriber growth despite the altnet onslaught; the lowlight was an increasing decline in Openreach broadband subscribers thanks to other Openreach customers (e.g. TalkTalk) not doing so well.

BT’s longer-term outlook and prospects for a dramatic cashflow turnaround remain strong, with Openreach net losses much more likely to improve than worsen over the next year, and further steps taken to divest/isolate erratic non-UK business segments.
 

Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.

Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.

Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.

The slowdown in telecoms traffic volume growth post-pandemic has persisted for far longer than a simple hangover effect would imply, and has spread from fixed broadband to mobile in many markets

The eventual emergence of the metaverse and/or AI-generated traffic may mitigate this trend, but it is hard to see growth ever returning to a sustained 30%+ per annum level, with around 10-15% likely to prove the new normal

While far from disastrous for telcos, it does have important implications, such as the need to structure pricing more carefully, focus on network quality over capacity, and be more wary of the threat (or opportunity) from MVNOs, FWA and satellite

Geopolitical clashes between the US and Europe were a barely concealed undercurrent at this year’s MWC, with European tech regulation at odds with US moves, and telcos pitching for regulatory favours on firmer ground than they have had for years.

Perhaps the largest impact is on the satellite industry, with Eutelsat OneWeb having been given a new lease of life as the EU champion versus a now disfavoured SpaceX/Starlink.

AI was of course the talk of the town, but largely in ways that are tangential at best to traditional telcos, with the necessary building blocks for telcos to play a big role (i.e. network APIs) still needing much work.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

BT had a solid-but-mixed Q3, with revenue growth slightly weaker than expected, EBITDA growth slightly stronger, and subscriber net adds a touch weak across broadband, mobile and Openreach 

The outlook is buoyed by a likely altnet slowdown at some point in FY26, with this set to help subscriber numbers at Consumer/Openreach and pricing at Consumer

The main cloud is the potential effect of a merged Vodafone-Three challenging BT/EE for best network and boosting MVNOs, a challenge we feel is real but manageable for BT

Vodafone’s Q2 performance was in line with the company’s guidance on almost every metric and was always going to be a tough one given the hit from TV losses in Germany and the annualisation of price increases there

The share price reaction (-6%) is likely a reflection of fears around Vodafone’s ability to improve underlying operational performance in Germany. Whilst this remains a valid concern, there is nothing in these results to amplify our worries on the issue

Escalating competitive pressure in German mobile is, however, a threat to the company’s growth outlook, and Vodafone’s promise to be “disciplined” in its approach to it may turn out to be too conservative a strategy

Q1 was always going to be tough for Vodafone with lower in-contract price increases a very significant drag on performance (across the sector), TV losses in Germany ramping up, and ongoing struggles to turn around broadband performance there. A deterioration in German mobile is an unwelcome addition.

Encouragingly, Vodafone continues to optimise its portfolio and is guiding to a U-shaped recovery, with Q2 particularly weak and B2B driving a better 2H.

While there are particular headwinds this year and tailwinds next which point to an improving outlook, better operational performance remains critical to the company's future, and we continue to await evidence of this.

On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, Salesforce and Adobe. 

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry. 

This is the edited transcript of Session Three, covering: consolidation in the telecoms sector; fixed-mobile convergence; and the future of the fibre industry. Videos of the presentations are available on the conference website.