The UK government is exploring an exception to copyright law for text and data mining (TDM) for AI training, preserving opt-out for creative media.
Licensing needs a proper technical and regulatory infrastructure. Beyond AI training, how this will apply for up-to-date access, as in AI search enhancements, is still uncertain.
The EU has put in place some helpful standards but shortfalls in its practical effectiveness are a warning to the UK.
From the depths of 2023, advertising expenditure on legacy media rose moderately in 2024, on the back of an uptick in real private consumer expenditure thanks to lower inflation and reduced costs of credit—the outlook for legacy media is about the same for 2025.
Online stands apart from legacy media due to the growth of ecommerce—driven by both goods (over 26% of retail sales) and services such as travel, as well as intense competition among platforms (Amazon, Shein, Temu)—with double-digit growth in 2024 set to continue in 2025.
Television remains the most effective medium for brand advertisers—despite the decline in viewing—with broadcasters’ digital innovation and SVOD ad tiers providing greater targeting alongside the mass broadcast reach.
Sky UK and Warner Bros. Discovery have reached a deal for the pay-TV platform to carry WBD's Max, non-exclusively, when it launches in early 2026. The ad-supported version will be bundled at no extra charge for Sky and Now subscribers
The non-exclusive nature of the deal appears to have invigorated Sky into a restructuring of its packages, essentially unbundling Sky Atlantic for the first time
Under financial stress, most streaming platforms are increasingly focusing on third-party distribution. Thanks to bundling, top streamers like Netflix can increase the lifetime value of subscribers, while smaller streamers widen their reach.
Bundles of streamers may have some potential in the US, but in Europe—with Netflix not interested—they do not have the necessary scale.
This trend towards bundling favours incumbent pay-TV aggregators like Sky and Canal+, but in the longer run they face competition from tech video marketplaces.
Disney believes it has turned a corner, laying out positive forecasts for the next two years, featuring annual, double-digit EPS growth. Streaming is now reliably profitable, although its low and generally inert ARPU will inevitably have to be stoked by more price rises
In the UK, Disney+ continues to trail Netflix in a number of core metrics—reach, engagement and habituality—but Rivals signals the potential of a positive trajectory
Similarly, although Disney's relatively patchy theatrical release schedule has had an effect on Disney+, a strong next six months should flow through to service growth
The Creative Industries (CI) are part of the UK’s emerging Industrial Strategy to power up output growth instead of relying mainly on consumer spend. Film & TV production is a prime example of a longstanding and successful industrial strategy that could be widely emulated.
Media’s contribution to economic growth is mainly in the form of a broad regional spread of skilled jobs created by a mixed ecosystem of commercial and not-for-profit entities, such as the BBC PSB Group and Channel 4, alongside 25,000 charities devoted to culture and recreation.
Media adds more than economic value to the UK by uniquely creating (unmeasurable) societal values through cultural products and services, anchoring a common language and identity at home, and conveying a vibrant and inspiring Britain to the world.
ITV's total external revenue is down 8% (to £2,321 million) so far in 2024 with Q3 total advertising revenue flat and Studios continuing to battle tough phasing comparators. Although Q4 advertising is expected to see a YoY decline, Studios will improve with a strong slate of deliveries and greater efficiencies
Advertising has fluctuated significantly across 2024, with 2025 remaining unclear. Digital ad revenue continues to see double digit growth, in line with the overall advancement in streaming hours
ITV is consolidating its disparate strands of streaming viewing on ITVX—where it can be better monetised—but overall growth is being well-outpaced by linear decline
As Netflix transitions towards a reporting cadence that omits quarterly subscriber numbers, the focus is on revenue (+15% YoY, to $9.8 billion) and margin (+8ppts YoY, to 30%), which remain buoyant. The company has guided that 2025 revenues will be $43 to $44 billion (+$4 billion YoY), mostly due to subscriber growth
Netflix's advertising-supported tier is dragging its ARPU—however, given its important future growth role, we would expect it to start influencing the direction of the streamer's content slate
Despite its expansion into new genres, Netflix's UK viewing has further narrowed around drama and films: however, live sport, British formats and soaps could move the needle in the future
2023 was a challenge for Channel 4: with the advertising market failing to recover after a difficult start, the unpredictability led to an unexpected YoY drop in content expenditure
In 2024, advertising revenue is expected to be flat, which provides a more stable planning base. Recent volatility has tested the broadcaster’s flexibility and proactiveness, above its competitors who are more insulated
To that end, Channel 4’s process of diversifying its business—the difficulties of 2023 show that it needs to be supported in these endeavours if the sector wants a consistent return of benefits
The spatial computing ecosystem is on the uptick with the wider availability of head mounted devices (HMD). Apple and Meta’s commitment to developing HMDs is existential to conquer the enormous technical hurdles these devices continue to face.
Apple has chosen to maroon the Vision Pro with a lack of controllers and other design choices making it reliant on mostly passive entertainment. In total contrast, Meta’s deep engagement in gaming and 3D experiences showcases the potential for the HMD category.
Live sports is the outstanding use case for TV experiences on VR headsets, with exclusive NBA VR programming on Quest bringing new levels of immersion and presence, while gaming, and its developers, will still remain the dominant driver for VR and MR for the rest of the decade.