An announcement about the mooted merger of Vodafone’s UK operations with Three appears imminent, paving the way for an ultimate CK Hutchison exit.

The combination has the potential to transform the fortunes of two struggling operators, with deal upside predicated on cost synergies rather than on rising prices (which we do not foresee).

It is all to play for in regulatory clearance terms, with Ofcom expected to take a neutral stance and a seemingly open mind from DSIT, but the CMA is not yet demonstrating the more pro-business approach that was hoped for with the new regime.

Headline inflation-busting price increases of 14% mask effective increases averaging a sub-inflation 8%, due to their limited scope across the customer base and over time.

The high headline increases have led to attacks from political and consumer groups, we would argue unfairly, and may yet drive reputational damage.

Looking forward, inflationary increases may be banned, but we would expect higher fixed increases to replace them, and micro-regulating pricing structures does tend to result in unintended consequences.

Mobile service revenue growth remained strong at 5% this quarter, albeit 1ppt lower than Q3 as boosts from roaming and the spring price rises diminished.

The cost-of-living crisis is becoming evident in weak net adds in the consumer segment while the B2B market remains quite robust for now.

Although the operators will implement in-contract price rises of 14-17% in April, the revenue impact will be much more muted (+4-9% for 2023), and transient (disappearing as customers recontract)—unlike their rising costs.

Providing home broadband connections via a mobile network (FWA) is gaining traction in certain markets where local conditions make it a viable alternative to fibre, such as New Zealand, Italy and the US.

FWA is a time-limited opportunity for most, with mobile traffic growth absorbing capacity for it and fixed traffic growth depleting the economic case. An ultimate shift to fibre is the best exit strategy.

In the UK, H3G's spare capacity could support up to 1 million FWA customers on a ten-year view—enough for a meaningful revenue fillip for H3G, but not enough to seriously disrupt the fixed market.

Sky is coping reasonably well with the shock of retrenching consumer spending, with revenues almost flat in Q4 2022.

However, profits are under pressure, as the increases in Sky’s costs cannot be fully passed on to customers, and the product mix is rebalanced towards telecoms and variable costs.

Management continues to leverage Sky’s brand strength and its critical mass of consumers to enter new markets, this time with home insurance.

BT’s revenue and EBITDA growth fell in the December quarter, with consumer broadband in particular suffering from weakening volumes and ARPU, as last year’s price rise benefit wanes and broader macro pressures hit.

Openreach, however, had an improved quarter, with the broadband market returning to growth, full fibre build and take-up progressing at or ahead of expectations, and the altnet threat fairly subdued.

Inflationary price rises in April will give a temporary fillip, and likely help drive a decent 2023/24 for Group financials, but it will take much longer for full fibre benefits to really be felt.

Pressure to deliver guidance is suppressing commercial activity which in turn is making guidance more challenging to reach. Although the dividend is well covered for now, the deteriorating cashflow outlook is unhelpful.

The change in strategy to give autonomy to country markets and to be more customer-centric has its merits but is not consistent with many Group initiatives and will take a long time to bear fruit.

Vodafone reiterated its intention to merge with H3G in the UK. Recent setbacks to approval prospects may not be as detrimental as they appear, and there is much to be gained with the potential to increase cashflow four-fold.

Service revenue growth was up just 0.1ppts to 2.0% this quarter, as price rises in the UK and the peak of the roaming boost offset weakness elsewhere.

Price increases to combat inflationary cost pressures are gathering momentum—a potential revenue cushion as roaming tailwinds diminish and challenging economic conditions weigh.

Vodafone is battling strategic issues in most of its main markets—significant change in strategy will be required from the new leadership.

 

Mobile service revenue growth rose to +6%—its highest level in over a decade as price increases fed through and roaming picked up.

However, there were early signs of a worsening economic environment: handset revenues and contract volumes were subdued and churn popped up for most operators.

Growth may soften from here as the roaming boost subsides and economic conditions worsen, but price rises of up to 15% in the spring could provide more resilience if fully implemented.

BT Consumer’s move to the EE brand is a gradual one, with an EE re-launch due next year set to accelerate this, although the BT and Plusnet brands will not be withdrawn in a hurry.

The company is hoping that the new converged EE will drive new revenue streams, a challenging task, but one that it is approaching with realism, and building on previous success.

BT confirmed that the inflation-plus price rise will be applied next year, along with a hope-to-be-sustained increase in front book pricing too. The cost-of-living crisis is putting pressure on ARPU, with FTTP likely to only partially compensate.