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BT Group revenue growth dropped to -1%, but entirely due to one-off factors, with its consumer division accelerating underlying growth and roughly maintaining broadband net adds share

Fibre net adds had a record quarter, driven by growth at Sky/TalkTalk et al, and BT is trialing the next generation of high speed broadband which could sustain profitable wholesale revenue growth for years to come

Upcoming developments over consolidation, quad play and sport rights are likely to continue to dominate the headlines, but it is growing capacity demand and BT’s ability to meet this that will drive BT’s long term value

Ofcom anticipates opposing the use of core DTT spectrum for mobile broadband at WRC-15 in November in recognition of the importance of broadcasting

Assuming the aligned UK and wider European position prevails at WRC-15, DTT spectrum will be exclusive to broadcast until 2030, providing certainty for broadcasters and programme makers to enable ongoing investment in the platform

However, there will be continued pushback from the mobile network operators to expand the spectrum made available to mobile broadband earlier, and broadcast will need to remain as vibrant and competitive as it is today

Customer movement between operators shows susceptibility to dynamism in branding; O2 are picking up the majority of EE churners as customers move to the new “cool brand” while EE pull in Vodafone churners tempted by the new “best network”. O2 have the lowest churn though the lion’s share move to Vodafone and H3G churners are more evenly picked up by the other three

Customer perceptions of own operator network quality are high among the big 3 with no less than 75% of customers reporting theirs is the best network. O2 is the best regarded while H3G is the least best regarded highlighting a stark contrast between the (prospective) merging parties

Consumers report little interest in quad play and indeed operators in the both fixed and mobile markets have publicly confirmed the same from other market research. However the arrival of converged players in the form of a merged BT/EE or Vodafone re-entering the fixed space will see operators seeking to change this

The posited deal merging H3G and O2 would create a new largest UK mobile operator with 40% market share, with massive synergy benefits available from cutting overlapping network and operations costs

Regulatory hurdles would be very significant, and the remedies required may well counteract the benefits of reduced network operator competition, as they will be designed to do

For Vodafone and EE, the impact will be mixed; a potentially aggressive competitor is removed, but their preferred positioning as being the best mobile networks is under threat

Ofcom has decided to implement a fibre margin squeeze test on BT, starting in March, which will include the costs of BT Sport as part of the calculation

Ofcom has stated that on its preliminary figures, BT does currently pass the test, but given earlier statements we conclude that it does not have a lot of headroom

This will make it challenging for BT to absorb the extra costs for its Champions League rights hitting from July without breaching the test, and even harder to absorb an increased cost for Premier League rights, reducing its incentive to bid aggressively in the upcoming auction

One year on from the launch of the latest generation of gaming consoles Microsoft and Sony remain locked in a high stakes struggle for dominance of the gaming industry, and longer term viability of the console category.

Sony’s PS4, which we estimate outsold Microsoft’s Xbox One 3:1 in Q3, looks certain to win this round in a return to form for Sony following the relative disappointment of the PS3. Microsoft, struggling from missteps early in the Xbox One cycle, may have left it too late to catch up.

The wider games market continues to shift to mobile and online gaming, as developers seek to exploit the vast installed base of connected devices. New console gaming experiences from Steam and Amazon may be the primary growth driver for controller-based gameplay.

The European mobile market had a rare quarter of solid improvement in Q3, with reported service revenue growth improving by over 2ppts to -4.7%, helped by a 1ppt improvement in regulated MTR cuts (which have now dropped to near zero) and a 1ppt improvement in underlying growth

The improvement appears largely driven by improved pricing trends, with the improvement in Italy particularly strong. However we feel that pricing is still in general in a fragile equilibrium, with the potential longer term structural improvements - consolidation and network focus - yet to be made

Consolidation has certainly progressed, but more in-market mobile deals need to be made, and while current levels of investment are encouraging, with accelerating data volume growth also encouraging, they will take some time to have an effect at the consumer level

Underpinned by a legislative regime since the 1970s designed to prevent sex discrimination and unequal pay between men and women, the UK has enjoyed successive and ever bigger waves of young women gaining the education and skills to enter the work force as professionals, now standing at 5 million strong. The UK also boasts 1 million female-led companies and the digital age has greatly expanded the opportunity for entrepreneurship for women to be their own bosses.

 

The workplace inflicts a stiff ‘motherhood penalty’ that produces a yawning gender pay gap for women in their 40s and 50s as men more readily gain access to managerial and executive positions, radiating from there to board positions, where Lord Davies’ initiative for FTSE companies has led some to endorse the merit of a diversity of directors on boards.

 

On the whole, however, employers often overlook the potential to optimise talent management practices to accommodate maternity and support the work-life balance of employees, prevent sexism and unequal pay, and offer women an equality of opportunity to accede to top jobs. Companies that do so could be more likely to establish a lasting competitive advantage and the UK economy will gain too from releasing the talent and energy of women at work.

 

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BT Everywhere?

A merger between BT and EE would create a converged operator directly serving around half of the UK adult population with fixed broadband, mobile or both services

We remain sceptical of the direct benefits of quad play and cross-selling, but we can see the benefits of merging the largest fixed and mobile operators under a single brand, and the long term strategic sense of owning both networks in case converged service offerings do become more important

The implications for other market participants are mixed, with benefits in the short term from the distraction of a large merger, and perhaps some regulatory concessions, but a longer term threat from the enlarged brand, and BT having a much enlarged customer base over which to spread content costs

In 2014 Canal+’s core premium French pay-TV business has continued to lose subscribers and swallowed a VAT increase. But this was offset by growth in FTA ad sales, in ARPU, in overseas subscriptions and by acquisitions. EBITDA has continued the decline which commenced in 2013

Eleven years ago Canal+ in France and Sky in Britain had the same household penetration, but since then a gap has opened up and now Canal+ lags behind at 21% compared to Sky’s 34%. The French platform suffers from its regulated focus on films and its neglect of hardware

A deep revision of Canal+’s model is needed, through building a library of scripted series, and a revamp of the consumer proposition to differentiate on quality and user experience. Building on recent initiatives, mediocre IPTV services should be bypassed by OTT bundles on fibre, and the satellite offering upgraded