On 12 May 2022, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2022 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, Meta, and Deloitte Legal

With up to 500 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on regulation, infrastructure, and how new technologies will impact the future of the industry

These are edited transcripts of Sessions 1-3 covering: regulation and legislation, PSB renewal, and clarity in the age of non-linear transmission. Videos of the presentations are also available on the conference website

The UK's cultural industries remain the strongest in Europe and digital distribution is a strong vector for the globalisation of British culture

The international reach and reputation of UK news providers is unparalleled, with the BBC, the largest news provider globally, reaching half a billion users weekly

Independent commissioning drives a dynamic ecosystem of TV exports with global clout—worth an estimated £3.4 billion—that remains stable despite Brexit

Netflix dramatically missed its quarterly guidance of +2.5 million subscribers in Q1, losing 200k net subs globally (although that includes 700k lost due to pulling out of Russia). Q2 is forecast to see a further net loss of 2 million (of a worldwide total of 222 million), the causes of which will also hit Netflix’s competitors.

Netflix prices continue to rise, with the Standard tier now eclipsing £10 per month. However, despite the current strain on household finances the streamer can still be confident that it can charge more without material consequence—video remains cheap compared with the past, and more time spent at home will lift Netflix's value to subscribers.

The upcoming clampdown on password sharing will aim to dismantle the 'culture of free' that currently surrounds the brand. However, we foresee that the company can only target the low-hanging fruit, so as not to risk inflaming subscriber relations by tackling all behaviour outside the accepted Terms of Use.

As part of the House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee inquiry into the future of BBC funding, Claire Enders gave oral evidence. Here we reproduce her accompanying slides.

The presentation highlights the reliance placed upon the BBC for information during the pandemic, and contextualises the value of the licence fee to consumers alongside the cost of other sources of news and entertainment. It further notes the significant proportion of viewers that lack the means, or do not wish, to pay for any video service beyond the cost of the licence fee.       

While a subscription model has been mooted as an alternative to the licence fee, recent volatility in the market has magnified concerns around the sustainability of the streaming model, and while growing penetration and investment in content by these services remains impressive, there is less certainty around the future plurality and distinctiveness of these platforms, and the related cost to subscribers.

Digital pioneer Viaplay has been leading NENT’s exemplary transition from linear to on-demand with sustained revenue and subscriber growth—unlike its pay-TV peers

These results have been leveraged to tell capital markets a Netflix-like equity story, underpinning ambitious growth targets to 2025 for the Nordics and new launches abroad, including the UK this year (albeit in low-key mode)

Expansion builds on a pivot to fixed costs originals and multi-territory sports rights. But, in highly competitive markets, we are sceptical of NENT’s capacity to generate the revenues necessary to breakeven with fast rising content costs

Channel 5 has been a rare recent success story in linear television, growing overall viewing and share while beginning to shake off the perception of being the home of cheaper, exploitative programming, consolidated under the ownership of Richard Desmond's Northern & Shell

The programming shift—most notably in investment in lower-price-point British drama—has been made possible with savings from axing schedule centerpieces Big Brother and soon, Neighbours. However, this will result in continued declines in 16-34 viewing share

The other channel brands of Paramount Global (formerly ViacomCBS) are in a gradual downswing: My5 is subscale, while Pluto TV makes less sense in the UK than in other markets. We wait with interest as to how upcoming SVOD, Paramount+, will differentiate

Ofcom has approved the relaunch of BBC Three as a linear channel in February, and mandated that it will appear within the first 24 slots of electronic programme guides. The 2016 cost-cutting move online saw a loss of about 75% of viewing of BBC Three content

The linear relaunch has the potential to actually lower viewing of the channel's biggest shows. Transmission on BBC One and Two is the overriding driver of reach and discovery of all BBC Three's recent long-form shows, bar perhaps Normal People and RuPaul's Drag Race UK; the new channel will have lower prominence

Giving the channel a home of its own allows it to make the content it really needs to. Currently commissioning has the twin purpose of finding approval with the young whilst also holding up a proportion of the BBC One schedule. These are contradictory intentions

Netflix has moved into the third stage of its COVID narrative, with growth back and residual benefits from lockdown banked

Squid Game proves that the Netflix UI can set the zeitgeist but with that power comes sobering responsibilities, such as increased regulatory obligations and an understanding that internal issues have the potential to become very public problems

With subscriber growth no longer the most effective story to emphasise in maturing markets, it appears that a shift in narrative from subscriber adds to engagement has begun

Netflix’s decision to launch games as part of the subscription bundle is smart business: rewarding current subscribers, leveraging its IP, and signalling that subscription is the best long-term revenue model in the games space. 

Expect technological innovation to be central to Netflix’s ambitions with games. Netflix will make it easier for different game experiences to occur, and ways to attract external developers will inevitably follow. 

For Disney, Netflix just made the battle for customers more difficult and more expensive.  Disney will need to make hard decisions about how to approach the games business—something it has shown before it finds difficult to do. 

Viewing habits are changing but live is still central to the TV experience

Television’s biggest shows are amongst the most timeshifted, and therefore have an outsized impact on the decline of live viewing debate

Viewing—not just of news and sport—is still overwhelmingly live, despite differences across genres and broadcasters