Broadcaster reach and viewing fell in 2024, but the decline slowed as BVOD growth increasingly makes up for linear decline and the BBC’s viewing grew year-on-year.
SVOD penetration and engagement returned to (slight) growth in 2024 and video-sharing platforms are increasing their share of TV set viewing.
Broadcasters still offer a wider array of programming than SVODs, but they are expanding their offering, as is YouTube.
Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.
Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.
Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.
BT had a solid-but-mixed Q3, with revenue growth slightly weaker than expected, EBITDA growth slightly stronger, and subscriber net adds a touch weak across broadband, mobile and Openreach
The outlook is buoyed by a likely altnet slowdown at some point in FY26, with this set to help subscriber numbers at Consumer/Openreach and pricing at Consumer
The main cloud is the potential effect of a merged Vodafone-Three challenging BT/EE for best network and boosting MVNOs, a challenge we feel is real but manageable for BT
Vodafone has announced that it is looking to launch a satellite direct-to-device service with AST Space Mobile in Europe "later in 2025 and 2026", while also demonstrating the first satellite video call in the UK.
The key challenge for AST Space Mobile is scaling up its constellation, with significant uncertainty remaining around their ability to both manufacture satellites on time and the rockets available to deliver them.
Potential for a full mobile broadband service is a key differentiator versus Starlink's text-only service, and if AST can deliver then Vodafone could be first to market in the UK with a direct-to-device service.
Global streamers have expanded their US premium sports coverage, but this will be difficult to replicate in Europe.
The main obstacle is much lower advertising revenues in European sport.
The concentration of European football rights and small pools of buyers mean that premium sports must be retailed on an opt-in basis.
Very strong subscription additions in all regions (+16% YoY, to 302 million) drove Netflix's quarterly revenue over $10 billion for the first time (+16% YoY). The advertising push appears to be continuing to dampen ARPU growth, ushering in more price rises
Netflix now has a defined advertising audience that does not watch commercial television—however, for this incremental audience to materially grow, longer-term users must be manoeuvred from the ad-free tiers
Netflix's original content slate has plateaued in major countries. If budgets have to absorb the growth of live content, there will be ramifications on the output of other genres, along with levels of market demand and production costs
Poverty has a negative impact on health in many ways —such as through housing, work, food, tobacco use, healthcare and sanitary costs, relationships, and social life—while social inequality has been shown to have its own, independent impact.
One in five people in the UK live in poverty, including nearly one in three children; almost two million households experience destitution. The life expectancy gap at birth between the most and least deprived areas of England is 9.7 years for men and 7.9 for women; the gaps are larger still in Scotland.
Multibank, an anti-poverty, community-based charitable initiative—which gifts otherwise wasted essentials to those most in need—has the invaluable support of retail and media to realise its impact.
From the depths of 2023, advertising expenditure on legacy media rose moderately in 2024, on the back of an uptick in real private consumer expenditure thanks to lower inflation and reduced costs of credit—the outlook for legacy media is about the same for 2025.
Online stands apart from legacy media due to the growth of ecommerce—driven by both goods (over 26% of retail sales) and services such as travel, as well as intense competition among platforms (Amazon, Shein, Temu)—with double-digit growth in 2024 set to continue in 2025.
Television remains the most effective medium for brand advertisers—despite the decline in viewing—with broadcasters’ digital innovation and SVOD ad tiers providing greater targeting alongside the mass broadcast reach.
Service revenue growth dropped further to -1.7% this quarter as pricing remains under pressure and in-contract price increases no longer benefit
Competition is heating up in Germany and France, and Digi is taking an aggressive stance as it enters the Portuguese and Belgian markets
While there is increasing awareness that investment levels in Europe are compromised by the current market structure, support for in-market consolidation remains lukewarm at best at the EU level
Apple is investing an additional $1.5 billion into its satellite partner Globalstar to build a new satellite network and expand its direct-to-device text and call capabilities, setting Apple up to take a sizeable piece of this emerging market
The FCC has approved Starlink's direct-to-device service, opening the path to an imminent commercial launch in the US and elsewhere, though it deferred on controversial power and interference questions
In the UK, while Ofcom will potentially approve services in the second half of 2025, we continue to expect no commercial services apart from Apple to be launched before 2026, with the UK market an imperfect fit for direct-to-device for now