ITV saw advertising revenue growth in 2024 (+2% to £1.8 billion), aided by the Euros. This balanced some of Studios’ 6% decline (to £2.0 billion), however, total external revenues were down 4% (£3.5 billion)

Despite the revenue drop, profits improved, with group adjusted EBITA increasing 11% to £542 million. This was aided by a unique set of circumstances which drove Studios’ profit to a record high with cross-company cost-cutting showing its benefit

ITV is making strides in its transition to digital but even though the revenue story is largely positive, the company continues to leak engagement and viewing share

Geopolitical clashes between the US and Europe were a barely concealed undercurrent at this year’s MWC, with European tech regulation at odds with US moves, and telcos pitching for regulatory favours on firmer ground than they have had for years.

Perhaps the largest impact is on the satellite industry, with Eutelsat OneWeb having been given a new lease of life as the EU champion versus a now disfavoured SpaceX/Starlink.

AI was of course the talk of the town, but largely in ways that are tangential at best to traditional telcos, with the necessary building blocks for telcos to play a big role (i.e. network APIs) still needing much work.

With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.

New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.

Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.

VMO2 had another mixed quarter to end a difficult 2024, with revenue growth improving but EBITDA growth falling, and other metrics mixed at best.

The company hopes to put this behind it with guidance for both revenue and EBITDA growth in 2025, a tough ask given current momentum.

Ultimately achieving or exceeding this may depend on altnet pressure receding, which we expect it to do, but perhaps more towards the end of the year than the beginning.

Telcos are increasingly developing APIs to share selected network data with third parties, with the goal of supporting useful end-user applications.

Capabilities are still nascent, but the potential is real. Telcos need to adopt a pragmatic approach that looks to match API capabilities to useful products, and build increasing scale over time.

Security is the largest near-term opportunity for API products, but AI is the key emerging area, with telcos potentially able to play an ambitious role in providing APIs to help manage the growth of autonomous AI agents.

Disney's phase of consolidation began with profit growth for its streaming business, pushed up by price rises with subscriber numbers reasonably flat. Emboldened by less churn than expected, Disney+ will be more expensive sooner rather than later

Disney+'s UK reach—a proxy for subscriptions—remains firm but under pressure with engagement materially suffering as the flow of new programming has slowed. Library content is D+'s strength, but viewing of it is correlated with new releases

The creation of sports channel bundle Venu ran the risk of accelerating the decline of Disney's linear business. The service's delay and failure to launch may have given time for the company to reappraise its approach to linear

Broadcaster reach and viewing fell in 2024, but the decline slowed as BVOD growth increasingly makes up for linear decline and the BBC’s viewing grew year-on-year. 

SVOD penetration and engagement returned to (slight) growth in 2024 and video-sharing platforms are increasing their share of TV set viewing.

Broadcasters still offer a wider array of programming than SVODs, but they are expanding their offering, as is YouTube.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

BT had a solid-but-mixed Q3, with revenue growth slightly weaker than expected, EBITDA growth slightly stronger, and subscriber net adds a touch weak across broadband, mobile and Openreach 

The outlook is buoyed by a likely altnet slowdown at some point in FY26, with this set to help subscriber numbers at Consumer/Openreach and pricing at Consumer

The main cloud is the potential effect of a merged Vodafone-Three challenging BT/EE for best network and boosting MVNOs, a challenge we feel is real but manageable for BT

Vodafone has announced that it is looking to launch a satellite direct-to-device service with AST Space Mobile in Europe "later in 2025 and 2026", while also demonstrating the first satellite video call in the UK.

The key challenge for AST Space Mobile is scaling up its constellation, with significant uncertainty remaining around their ability to both manufacture satellites on time and the rockets available to deliver them.

Potential for a full mobile broadband service is a key differentiator versus Starlink's text-only service, and if AST can deliver then Vodafone could be first to market in the UK with a direct-to-device service.