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Netflix beat its own Q1 revenue and profit forecasts but an uneven outlook means that its previous 2025 projections (12-14% revenue growth with a 29% margin) remain relevant. The end of reporting of subscription numbers and ARPU means that there is less visibility on the success of advertising and its regions

UK programming is now the most efficient original content on Netflix—with a tough outlook for production, this is validation of the quality of the product produced in this country

The call for a streaming levy was badly timed with little interrogation of any consequences. Further, it fails to directly address a major problem: the declining consumption of British programming  

 

In the year following its IPO, Reddit has defied our expectations, reporting five straight quarters of positive adjusted operating income and strong growth.

Profitability stems from disciplined cost management alongside exceptional user growth, with a focus on advertising performance and limited distractions.

The platform's human-generated conversations are proving valuable in the AI era, but AI strength could become a vulnerability if synthetic content overwhelms authentic discussion.

UEFA and Relevent, a newly appointed media rights sales partner, are already surveying the rights market for the next cycle starting in 2027.

With minimal competitive tension in major European markets, incumbent broadcasters are unlikely to increase their bids.

Relevent will, however, try to leverage increased US appetite for soccer to lure a streamer into a global deal.

 

Looking to 2030, we forecast that broadcaster viewing will continue to decline, driven by a drop in live viewing. Non-live is increasing but will be unable to make up for the total broadcaster shortfall.

Change is demarcated by age: while under-35s will watch more YouTube on the TV, with SVOD steady, the inverse will occur for over-35s.

The heavy-watching over-65s remain mostly insulated from change for now, however, those aged 35-54 are currently undergoing the biggest behavioural shift: beyond 2030 they will eventually carry their modern habits into their time-rich retirements.

The USA is reshaping the global economic order in defiance of trade treaties; however, the rest of the world is observing trade treaties and absorbing the shock of the tariff wall erected around the US market.

The UK is relatively spared among the 90 origins hit by the USA's tariffs on imports of goods, which do not apply to services' exports to the US, twice the value of goods, including media (e.g. TV programmes) and advertising services.

The timing of the deteriorating global outlook is poor due to the headwinds facing the UK economy that are impairing the recovery of advertising in 2025.

This report is free to access

Trump II is already proving to be a more serious threat to an independent, robust news media than Trump I.

Trump’s direct power around news media is limited, but the threat comes from an unprecedented politicisation of federal regulators, enforcement and procurement—to favour friends and punish enemies.

Opposition to Trump II is weaker and more divided than the broad ‘resistance’ to Trump I. Big tech companies are going for a close embrace, hoping to steer policy to their advantage—while others bend the knee to avoid punishment.

AI agents capable of complex, self-directed tasks are becoming a reality, with capabilities set to improve dramatically through this year, and diffuse widely.

Consumer agent uptake will be hard to time, but fast when it occurs. Enterprise adoption will happen slower but with greater inevitability, as agents offer strong productivity gains across many business functions.

TMT firms should be able to capitalise on much of these potential cost savings, but are exposed to a number of specific risks around agents acting as new digital middlemen, disintermediating traditional web ecosystems within advertising and ecommerce.

ITV saw advertising revenue growth in 2024 (+2% to £1.8 billion), aided by the Euros. This balanced some of Studios’ 6% decline (to £2.0 billion), however, total external revenues were down 4% (£3.5 billion)

Despite the revenue drop, profits improved, with group adjusted EBITA increasing 11% to £542 million. This was aided by a unique set of circumstances which drove Studios’ profit to a record high with cross-company cost-cutting showing its benefit

ITV is making strides in its transition to digital but even though the revenue story is largely positive, the company continues to leak engagement and viewing share

Geopolitical clashes between the US and Europe were a barely concealed undercurrent at this year’s MWC, with European tech regulation at odds with US moves, and telcos pitching for regulatory favours on firmer ground than they have had for years.

Perhaps the largest impact is on the satellite industry, with Eutelsat OneWeb having been given a new lease of life as the EU champion versus a now disfavoured SpaceX/Starlink.

AI was of course the talk of the town, but largely in ways that are tangential at best to traditional telcos, with the necessary building blocks for telcos to play a big role (i.e. network APIs) still needing much work.

Despite the success and popularity of Amazon’s Echo, the rationale for this device in Amazon’s ecosystem has been unclear—until now.

The introduction of Alexa+ to Echo devices—enhanced with generative AI which improves its voice user-interface—aims to change this.

Alexa+ is designed to increase Prime lock-in, and enables Amazon to differentiate its devices and operating systems.