Telcos are increasingly developing APIs to share selected network data with third parties, with the goal of supporting useful end-user applications.

Capabilities are still nascent, but the potential is real. Telcos need to adopt a pragmatic approach that looks to match API capabilities to useful products, and build increasing scale over time.

Security is the largest near-term opportunity for API products, but AI is the key emerging area, with telcos potentially able to play an ambitious role in providing APIs to help manage the growth of autonomous AI agents.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

BT had a solid-but-mixed Q3, with revenue growth slightly weaker than expected, EBITDA growth slightly stronger, and subscriber net adds a touch weak across broadband, mobile and Openreach 

The outlook is buoyed by a likely altnet slowdown at some point in FY26, with this set to help subscriber numbers at Consumer/Openreach and pricing at Consumer

The main cloud is the potential effect of a merged Vodafone-Three challenging BT/EE for best network and boosting MVNOs, a challenge we feel is real but manageable for BT

Vodafone has announced that it is looking to launch a satellite direct-to-device service with AST Space Mobile in Europe "later in 2025 and 2026", while also demonstrating the first satellite video call in the UK.

The key challenge for AST Space Mobile is scaling up its constellation, with significant uncertainty remaining around their ability to both manufacture satellites on time and the rockets available to deliver them.

Potential for a full mobile broadband service is a key differentiator versus Starlink's text-only service, and if AST can deliver then Vodafone could be first to market in the UK with a direct-to-device service.

Use of publisher content to train AI models is hotly contested. Unacknowledged scraping, licensing deals, and lawsuits all characterise the publisher-AI company relationship.

However, model training is not the whole story. More and more products rely on up-to-date access to content, and some are direct competitors to publisher offerings.

Publishers can’t depend on copyright to deliver them the value of their IP. They need to track which products are catching on with users for licensing deals to make sense for them, and to ensure their own products keep up with the competition.

The UK government is exploring an exception to copyright law for text and data mining (TDM) for AI training, preserving opt-out for creative media.

Licensing needs a proper technical and regulatory infrastructure. Beyond AI training, how this will apply for up-to-date access, as in AI search enhancements, is still uncertain.

The EU has put in place some helpful standards but shortfalls in its practical effectiveness are a warning to the UK.

Service revenue growth dropped further to -1.7% this quarter as pricing remains under pressure and in-contract price increases no longer benefit

Competition is heating up in Germany and France, and Digi is taking an aggressive stance as it enters the Portuguese and Belgian markets

While there is increasing awareness that investment levels in Europe are compromised by the current market structure, support for in-market consolidation remains lukewarm at best at the EU level

Apple is investing an additional $1.5 billion into its satellite partner Globalstar to build a new satellite network and expand its direct-to-device text and call capabilities, setting Apple up to take a sizeable piece of this emerging market

The FCC has approved Starlink's direct-to-device service, opening the path to an imminent commercial launch in the US and elsewhere, though it deferred on controversial power and interference questions

In the UK, while Ofcom will potentially approve services in the second half of 2025, we continue to expect no commercial services apart from Apple to be launched before 2026, with the UK market an imperfect fit for direct-to-device for now

The CMA has approved the merger of Vodafone and H3G, paving the way for the UK’s largest mobile network operator.

Remedies are in place to ensure pricing stability in the short term, with the increase in sector capacity keeping the pricing side of the equation in check over the longer term, together with network quality upsides for users.

This is the right outcome in our view, with the alternative of a slow, painful retreat by H3G much less desirable for the industry. BT/EE will face the greatest challenges in adapting to the new market structure, with upward pressure on capex spend for all network operators.

Broadcasters have made considerable progress in becoming platform agnostic over the past three years, delivering innovative ad propositions offering greater targeting, flexibility and measurement. 

They would welcome the opportunity to work with advertisers to explain the complexity involved in delivering linear and digital campaigns. 

Broadcasters believe that although TV advertising is transitioning to digital, legacy share deals and reliance on pricing relative to ITV1’s station average price (SAP) continue to hold the market back. Potential amendments to CRR may allow for a smoother digital transition, benefitting the entire ecosystem.