Service revenue growth flat-lined at -1% this quarter. The operators’ year-to-date net adds remain in negative territory while the MVNOs have taken more than 1 million
 

The accounting treatment of the new, absolute, in-contract price increases will provide something of a boost to some operators this year, but worsen the trend next year, particularly for BT/EE
 

The likely Vodafone/Three merger will be the primary theme for the industry in 2025 and beyond, putting upward pressure on capex levels industry-wide 
 

Vodafone’s Q2 performance was in line with the company’s guidance on almost every metric and was always going to be a tough one given the hit from TV losses in Germany and the annualisation of price increases there

The share price reaction (-6%) is likely a reflection of fears around Vodafone’s ability to improve underlying operational performance in Germany. Whilst this remains a valid concern, there is nothing in these results to amplify our worries on the issue

Escalating competitive pressure in German mobile is, however, a threat to the company’s growth outlook, and Vodafone’s promise to be “disciplined” in its approach to it may turn out to be too conservative a strategy

BT Group was hit by an unexpected slowdown in Global/Portfolio non-UK corporate revenue in Q2, with this impacting quarterly and full year expected revenue by 2ppts.

EBITDA, cashflow and all other operational metrics were steady or improving, with Openreach particularly strong, and without the non-UK impact it would have been a solidly good if unspectacular quarter.

The fibre-driven cashflow turnaround plan is therefore still very much on track, with the expected altnet slowdown/consolidation an added potential bonus, and the Vodafone-H3G merger a manageable challenge.

VMO2’s Q3 results were mixed, with underlying revenue and EBITDA slightly improving (but still negative), subscriber momentum slightly improved, but customer service issues still apparent.

The company’s broadband momentum is clearly being significantly curtailed by altnet gains (and Openreach overbuild), with substantial network expansion resulting in anaemic subscriber growth.

A return to growth in 2025 certainly looks possible, but it will depend on customer service issues being resolved, and industry consolidation going VMO2’s way. 

UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.

Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.

Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.

Broadcasters are accelerating their transformation into digital-first businesses. We estimate that 17% of broadcasters' viewing on the TV set will have been delivered by IP this year.

FTA platforms have a more complex migration pathway to IP than pay-TV. Given the existing strength of DTT, and its older demographic profile, DTT will account for more broadcaster viewing hours than satellite/cable combined by 2029.

By 2040, we estimate that half of all broadcaster viewing will be via IP, with broadcast delivery remaining strong due to the live schedule.

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We view the CMA's proposed remedies to the Vodafone/Three merger as workable, but not necessary.

While acknowledging the reassurance that short-term pricing commitments can provide, we are of the view that going too far risks distorting a highly competitive market.

Aggressive MVNO pricing commitments, in particular, could amplify a significant drain on the operators' capacity to invest, threatening the network promises that the companies are making.

The CMA's provisional findings on the Vodafone/Three merger reiterate its concerns around the impact on the retail and wholesale market but its previous issues regarding mobile towers sharing with BT/EE have been satisfied 

Crucially, the CMA seems somewhat dismissive of structural remedies, although hasn't ruled them out entirely. Remedies sought in the form of network and pricing commitments seem somewhat unnecessary, but nonetheless workable 

We now expect the Vodafone Three merger to gain approval in December, with remedy detail negotiated over the coming months—a very significant positive development for the sector 

A subscription funding model would be antithetical to the BBC’s public service mission, necessarily ending universality of access and undermining its breadth of content. 

Options like separating out “public service” content from other programming would result in a decline in news consumption, while the subscription model would risk sustainability and encourage short-term thinking. 

Further, there are technical roadblocks to executing this model, meaning that it is not feasible until long after the end of the current Charter in 2027.

SpaceX and its Starlink satellite network have made headlines dangling a vision of free emergency service coverage direct to all mobile devices, undoubtedly connected to its ongoing battles for FCC approval.

Starlink is the clear leader in the D2D space and almost certainly will be the first to launch its service. AST Space Mobile, backed by various mobile operators (including Vodafone) is lagging significantly behind, having not yet launched any commercial satellites.

The UK is however a relatively unfavourable geography for D2D, due to its high latitude and relative density, and we don't expect any launch of commercial service in the UK by Starlink or AST Space Mobile before 2026.