Alphabet's stunning growth reflects a shift online that has outlasted pandemic restrictions. Google search is at the heart of online commercial activity

YouTube's slower growth is not yet cause for concern: it is still the biggest website in the world, with growth potential through subscriptions and transactable ads, as well as more brand spend

Alphabet might struggle to balance privacy concerns in the context of the online advertising ecosystem. The future of personalisation in ads is uncertain as Alphabet cancels one of its cookie-replacement technologies

The recent shareholder pressure on Vodafone seems to focus on consolidation (where we see approval prospects as only slightly improved), Vantage (where a sell-down may create more value than an industrial merger), and improving operational performance (which continues to struggle).

The zero-growth German fixed business took another step down this quarter and looks set to worsen.  This will be central to growth prospects next year and a write-down of the investment looks inevitable.

A culture necessitated by a sprawling asset base may be holding back performance but any break-up would be costly and protracted, with real premium valuations achievable only with consolidation.

Apple’s record December quarter closed off a huge year for the company, with little sign that supply chain problems affected the core iPhone business. Services, meanwhile, remain strong, and the company’s status as the world’s biggest subscription provider positions the business for a metaverse future.

Apple’s ability to control platforms like the App Store is under regulatory pressure. Apple is ceding ground where it can, while keeping fees high for the mobile gaming cash cow.

China has returned as a meaningful contributor to growth. US sanctions have toppled China’s Huawei, to the benefit of the American firm.

Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard is industry transforming—accelerating the momentum toward global subscription gaming across all devices and becoming an entertainment IP powerhouse.

Activision’s ‘toxic culture’ distress was acute and couldn’t be solved—Microsoft will (and should) clean up a tarnished organisation. The troubles had hammered Activision’s share price, allowing Microsoft to pick up world-class IP at a bargain relative to year-ago prices.

Sony faces a harsh reckoning on its long-term strategy for PlayStation, while EA and Ubisoft have become desirable acquisition targets.

Ongoing supply difficulties for PlayStation and Xbox through 2022 and beyond will result in the install base for the generation being permanently impacted. It raises the question: if you can’t buy a console are they even relevant?

VR will stage a comeback this year, as Quest 2 has its highest sales ever, the category will find new appeal from game (and metaverse) developers. If a rumoured Apple VR/AR headset eventuates, expect white-hot interest

Netflix will make strides in its games service―but mostly behind the scenes to deliver a once in a decade transformation of the industry. Don’t rule out a critical and exclusive mobile hit

Fuelled by savings piles accumulated under work-from-home (WFH) and asset price inflation, the strong recovery of private consumption in H2 2021 from the depths of successive lockdowns drove spectacular growth in UK display advertising, up by 24% on 2020 to £16 billion, noting base effects from the dramatic plunge in 2020

With consumers largely WFH in 2021, TV soared 25%, online 28%. Spend on cinema and out-of-home (OOH) in 2021 remained well below 2019 values. In-home goods and services have been strong while those consumed OOH are weak. Government spend on public health messaging remained high in 2021

Private consumption, now also impacted by CPI inflation, will trend upwards in 2022 and power display advertising growth of over 9%, driven by online spend and the continued recovery of cinema, OOH and the press. The sunny uplands we forecast for 2022 could rapidly cloud depending on the course of Omicron as we face Year 3 of the pandemic

European mobile revenue growth was flat again this quarter as a larger boost from annualising the roaming drag was outweighed by B2B weakness, a waning mobility boost and the unwind of pandemic upsides.

Italy saw the biggest improvement in its underlying trend as Iliad struggled to regain momentum, while competitive tension remains elevated in Spain and France.

Q4 looks mixed before 2022 kicks off with some market-specific positives for the UK, but the other European countries will finally face the impact of end-of-contract notifications.

Google has lost its appeal of the European Commission’s antitrust ruling of 2017 that it had abused its position in general search to favour Google Shopping, its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel for merchants, in relation to price comparison aggregators. 

Since the case was lodged in 2010, price comparison has receded as the key to consumers’ online purchases, also motivated by influencers, reviews, and browsing. Merchants use YouTube and Instagram to build brands, Facebook to launch products, and Google Shopping as the key alternative to Amazon for direct response.

The EU’s antitrust regime has once more solved yesterday’s problem, but this will shift for Big Tech to an ex-ante regime when the landmark Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act come on-stream.

Vodafone’s leverage issue continues to drive its strategy and operational focus, as evidenced in its H1 results with solid EBITDA but lacklustre revenues.

Its leverage crisis is severely exacerbated by the prospect of a fibre build in Germany as well as a sizeable headwind to its cable business momentum there. Further sell-downs at Vantage will help and we view the prospects of consolidation as slightly improved, with Spain the most promising option.

Growth in the UK appears to be on hold and the outlook is mixed with VMO2’s notice for early termination for its MVNO, ongoing B2B weakness expected but significant inflation-linked price rises on the cards.

Facebook has been caught unawares by the significant impacts of privacy changes to its advertising revenue, posting an uncharacteristic quarterly decline as its costs are set to spiral

Facebook’s ageing user demographics are a long-standing and growing issue, as competitor platforms erode Facebook’s attraction to the young. Recent negative PR only compounds a brewing problem of relevance as social media shifts towards being content, rather than network-driven

By pinning its name to the metaverse, Facebook hopes to redefine its narrative and claim the benefits of managing the platform of the future, but significant challenges in the entertainment, enterprise, and tech spheres stand in its way