This companion report to UK TV VOD [2005-24] concludes that the number of PC-based video-on-demand (VOD) services in the UK is set to explode in the near future. Rising broadband penetration, to 35% of UK homes at the end of 2005, is leading every major content owner, aggregator, broadcaster, service provider, and network operator to develop a PC VOD service. Will this response to the interest in personalised media consumption enable the PC to take over from the TV as the main source of video entertainment? The short answer is no, although we expect the market for PC-delivered VOD to grow dramatically in the next 2-3 years.

Sky Italia subscriptions, now totalling 3.71 million, have increased by almost 0.5 million subscribers in the last year. Low SACs, low churn, and yet high ARPU, show that Sky continues to benefit from strong natural growth in a pay-TV market that is experiencing a new lease of life thanks to the eradication of piracy post merger of Telepiu with Stream 

Talk of a merger between the recorded music divisions of EMI and Warner Music Group to create the third largest recorded music group has been simmering for at least six months. After two failed attempts in the past six years, the logic of a merger continues to be strong and scale is an even more compelling objective given the continued difficult conditions in the recorded music market, despite rising digital sales in line with our forecasts. The question is when, not if and we believe that the time is fast approaching, judging by investment bank and private equity interest in the music publishing assets of each company.

We continue to expect group revenue growth to remain positive in spite of the impact of local loop unbundling

This report on Music Publishing 2006 [2006-02] updates our views on the prospects of the sector in the context of the continued difficulties of the recorded music market (Music sales continued to decline [Jan 2006]). The music publishing sector has been resilient to these difficulties for a decade by maximising its benefits from each of the new revenue streams.

As predicted by Enders Analysis in August 2005, global recorded music sales declined by 2% during 2005

Our presentation UK TV Trends January 2006 [2006-01]* provides our most up-to-date views on three subjects:

Freeview recorded its strongest monthly increase of 694,000 homes in December 2005 according to BARB survey estimates, with 6.393 million digital terrestrial television (DTT) homes projected for the beginning of 2006.

UK broadband network operators have begun full-scale deployment of video-on-demand (VOD) services. NTL/Telewest have almost completed the upgrade of their networks to enable homes in their footprint for VOD, hoping to achieve similar success as the US cablecos in the past five years. In 2006, BT is to launch its hybrid Freeview/VOD device to BT broadband customers and VOD will also be a part of the IPTV offers from Bulldog and Wanadoo UK. Is this enthusiasm for VOD in the UK warranted?

IPWireless’s TDtv technology offers an intriguing alternative, using otherwise spare spectrum, but it is the most costly technology to roll out, and the most underdeveloped in handset terms

GCap Media's first financial results last week were described as "extremely disappointing” by Chief Executive Ralph Bernard. Formed earlier this year from the merger of GWR plc and Capital Radio plc, the industry’s two former heavyweights, GCap owns one national radio licence, 55 local radio licences and 100 digital radio licences.

The recent results from Vodafone’s competitors in Europe show it experiencing a clear performance lag, with growth dipping in the December quarter at Vodafone but its competitors maintaining their previous pace

The liberalised ownership provisions in the Communications Act 2003 have facilitated consolidation of the commercial radio sector in the past year. Two top-tier groups have emerged in GCap Media and Emap, following its acquisition of Scottish Radio Holdings. The pressures for consolidation have become more acute in the past year due to the structural problems of the commercial radio sector and the advertising downturn. But assets have become more difficult to value due to the uncertain timing of the recovery in advertising and the prospect that radio will be edged out of national budgets by online. UK radio groups are increasingly cautious to buy and anxious to sell, and we also discount the prospect of a bid from a major US group, expecting instead keen competition for the 35 new licences Ofcom will be allocating in the next few years.

Television's old world of analogue scarcity produced a clutch of big names in free-to-air (FTA) commercial broadcasting: ITV1, TF1, Mediaset, RTL and Sat.1/Pro7 being among the most prominent in Europe - companies grown rich and powerful through advertising demand and lack of competition. Today, they face the common challenge of making a successful transition into the new world of digital plenty. Can they prosper? Or must they disappear like dinosaurs in a whirl of audience fragmentation, ad avoidance, on demand, downloading, video-streaming, convergence, piracy and whatever else the future holds?

The new UK management team, led by former Energis CEO John Pluthero, still has the opportunity to improve C&W UK’s longer-term position

Rapid implementation of a Next Generation Network to cut costs and refocusing Bulldog remain critical