On next generation access, the interim Digital Britain report has little new to say, but leaves the door open to using public money to help implement it. We think the chance of this happening as part of a ‘deal’ with fixed network operators has increased

On mobile spectrum, the report instructs the mobile operators to agree between themselves a solution to the most contentious issue, 2G spectrum redistribution, or face a solution being imposed. We doubt they will agree, leaving the government to decide and enforce a way forward

On universal broadband, the government is aiming for a 2 Mbit/s commitment. It is early days, but we expect a hybrid wireline/wireless solution, paid for by a combination of government funding, and/or a levy on industry players based on share of industry revenue, which we expect will be fiercely resisted

Strong Q2 results announced on Wednesday 28th January 2009 provided no evidence of negative impact so far due to the current recession

Sky+ HD looks set to provide a major growth opportunity, especially with the Sky+ HD box prices now dropping to £49. That and another record quarter for Sky+ take-up strengthens the view that Sky will meet its target of 10 million pay-TV subscribers by the end of 2010 with room to spare

Fixed line results again displayed relatively strong subscriber growth in an increasingly difficult market, but the operating loss excluding Easynet continued to deepen. Original standalone IRR guidance for fixed line looks unlikely to be met without further price increases

The CC determination on mobile termination rates (MTRs), if implemented, would result in a cumulative 4% reduction in UK mobile industry revenue and EBITDA by the 2010/11 financial year, but a small boost to fixed line industry EBITDA

However, even this cut does not make up for the termination rate cut ‘holiday’ that the UK mobile industry has been enjoying for the last 2-3 years, with MTRs still high in relation to retail tariffs by historic standards

On the positive side (for the MNOs), this means that increased competitive pricing pressure is unlikely in the short term; on the negative side we still expect substantial further cuts from April 2011. These cuts are broadly lagging those in the rest of Europe, so there is no negative read-across for most European MNOs

BT’s latest trading update involved a massive £340 million one-off charge to reflect a more cautious view of contract profitability and realign reported performance with cash flow; in addition reported GS EBITDA for the quarter to December is expected to be negligible

There will be little visibility of improved performance at GS until the various ongoing reviews of the business are completed, with a further charge related to one or more NHS contracts the most likely outcome

Performance at the rest of BT group is continuing to be relatively resilient, and price changes at BT Retail and Openreach should help to an extent. But GS looks likely to prove a major drag on group performance well into 2010

Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business felt the recessionary chill for the first time in the December quarter, but its like-for-like organic growth of -1% was still far better than other consumer electronics retailers have fared

The market outlook is unfortunately still worsening. While we still expect Carphone Warehouse to outperform its competitors, its results are likely to get worse before they get better

In fixed line, net broadband additions were reasonable at TalkTalk but negative again at AOL. We are sceptical of the prospects for subscriber growth at AOL, and earlier guidance of 200-250k broadband net adds for the year to March now looks unlikely to be met

Ending a simmering commercial dispute, Vivendi’s Canal+ has agreed to distribute its packages to France Télécom’s Orange TV satellite customers, allowing Orange to relaunch its DTH platform (targeting 4 million customers off the DSL TV footprint) after its dismal ‘do-it-alone’ first six months

Canal+ recruitments will benefit from the resumption of active marketing for its packages over Orange TV platforms, after a poor year for subscriber growth

Canal+ catch-up TV will now be available to all Orange Canal+ DSL TV subscribers, as it is to those on Free, where it is very popular, plus Orange satellite subscribers, thus giving Orange back the leadership position on IPTV in France

This is the third, after France and The Netherlands, of our reports on NGA in the continent. Deutsche Telekom’s NGA extends fibre to the cabinet, with VDSL for the last mile, to cover 25% of the country’s 37 million homes by end 2008. In our view, DTAG’s strategic rationale on NGA is to develop the IPTV proposition to better counter the competitive challenge on broadband and telephony, in core urban areas, of a resurgent cable. DTAG has already lost considerable double play market share to the altnets, and market positioning is key given the sizeable upside left in the German broadband market

In the attached report, we present an analysis of UK handset sales over the online channel, using data sourced from Mobileshop.com, an online comparison handset sales site. Mobileshop.com presents offers from all major online mobile shops, including those from the operators and the major independent retailers, covering handsets, datacards and SIM-only offerings, across prepay and contract connections. In this, our first report, we have focused on issues relating to the market structure and broad market share figures, and our future quarterly updates will focus more on emerging trends

This report on next generation access in The Netherlands is the second, after France, of our reports on NGA in the continent. KPN’s NGA was initially focused on FTTC+VDSL deployment, to cover 15% of the country’s 6 million homes by end 2009. Since May 2008, KPN has moved aggressively on FTTH, establishing a joint venture with Reggefiber, the country’s leading local ‘open’ network operator. Regulatory approval is pending for the end of 2008. The JV’s coverage could eventually reach 70% of homes, making The Netherlands the leading market for FTTH in Europe.

On Monday 15th December, Virgin Media (VMed) announced the launch of its 50 Mbit/s ‘XXL’ broadband service, implemented over the existing cable network using the DOCSIS3 standard. This note looks at the details of the offer and the implications for VMed, other ISPs and the residential telecoms market as a whole