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Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is set in the mid-range), of which about €250 million will be fresh money to finance the acquisition of AOL FR and other properties, and the rest mainly to founder Louis Dreyfus and exiting shareholder Suez. SFR (controlled 56/44 by Vivendi/Vodafone) will maintain its stake at 40.6%. The resulting float should be 20.3% of equity

Ofcom has reintroduced price reductions for UK mobile call termination charges, cutting 2G termination rates in real terms by between 6% and 16% over four years and introducing regulation for 3G call termination that will cut rates by almost 50% from current levels

Iliad - Destiny

Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning in this market, and the development of the media side of the triple play to grow ARPU and differentiate the brand

Vodafone is taking the first step in implementing its convergence strategy in the UK by buying broadband from BT Wholesale; while we believe the strategy is misguided, Vodafone’s approach is at least cautious 

The company is at least unlikely to be losing money on the product, and is perhaps just sensibly testing the water for positive consumer interest in a bundled package from Vodafone

We expect the water to be very cold - results from Orange, NTL and BT suggest continued very low consumer interest in fixed-mobile convergence, and we doubt that Vodafone will fare much better

Pipex’s acquisition of the Bulldog and Toucan customer bases establishes it as a significant player in the UK residential telecoms market 

Counterbalancing the good news, churn stood at a record high in recent years of 11.8%, while ARPU grew by only £3 compared with Q1 2006 after discounting exceptional factors and changes in accounting policies. Multiroom growth has also slackened

High churn and weak ARPU growth suggest a steady spin-down among Sky movie subs, placing even greater importance on the long term success of Sky Broadband in revitalising subscriber growth and building margins

In the attached slides, we examine the service revenue growth trends in the top five European mobile markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) over the last six quarters (ending in the June 2006 quarter), focusing particularly on the latest trends. The analysis is based on the published results of the mobile operators, although we have had to make estimates where the operators have not reported recent figures (only Virgin Mobile), or their data is not complete or inconsistent. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.

A merger would not be a panacea for either company and carries the risk of distracting them from more urgent issues, but closer collaboration, if well managed, could help both

Closer collaboration could help NTL address some of the issues of scale now facing Flextech and improve its ability to acquire premium content, whilst helping ITV to develop a more coherent new media strategy

H3G has extended its deadline for hitting EBITDA breakeven, with this now around 12 months later than its previous forecast, we believe due to management failing to understand the extent of its churn problem 

The Zune Marketplace is no match for the iTunes Store, with a smaller repertory of music and no video to supply the Zune, since Microsoft has announced it will soon sell video for the top-end Xbox 360, around which its ‘home-entertainment’ strategy is based

We figure the costs of switching to the Zune are low, but Microsoft will be lucky to sell 1 million Zunes in the Christmas quarter – if it does, revenue will rise by less than 1%, so the Zune is of limited interest, whether successful or not

NTL’s Q2 results were again adversely affected by merger-related costs

Google’s phenomenal ascent is built on its domination of search, now the main growth driver of online advertising and accounting for 59% of the UK internet ad market which we estimate will be worth £2 billion this year or about 13% of total ad spend