Encouraged by the way that Google has come to dominate the global market for online search advertising, Clear Channel and its rival CBS Radio are now eyeing the potential to dominate the global market for online radio advertising, and fend off Google. In July 2008, Clear Channel announced its plans to dominate the ‘internet radio’ market, by launching a ‘portal’ offering a vast array of radio programming, along with a new business unit to sell online advertising inventory. Although Clear Channel’s targets initially are US advertisers and US internet users, the company will likely target the UK market when it eventually decides to roll out its business model for online radio to the rest of the world. As a result, within the next decade, the UK commercial radio sector could face an additional source of competition from overseas media companies offering radio content delivered via the internet

Deteriorating economic conditions are impacting growth in online advertising, with display and classified especially affected, though search, which accounts for about 60% of spend, remains relatively robust

UK classified advertising, which generated £4.8 billion in 2007 (26% of total UK advertising spend), could decline to £4.2 billion in 2008 and to £3.7 billion in 2009. In our view, advertisers are accelerating their shift online as a result of the economic downturn, while the property market’s steep decline depresses associated classifieds. Online has already overtaken national newspapers and magazines as classified advertising media, and looks set to rise above directories in 2008. In the near future, online will be the leading classified advertising medium, ahead of regional newspapers. The enclosed presentation updates for 2008 the information contained in Classified Advertising in the UK [2007-55]

This report examines the role of local commercial media in supplying the information needs of the UK’s many communities, in the context of the BBC’s ‘Local Video’ plans to add video to its local online services. Unlike the BBC services, which are publicly funded, regional and local commercial media must cover their costs from revenue earned from circulation and advertising. On top of the structural shift to the internet of media consumption and advertising, their business models are severely stressed by the ongoing recession, which will only widen the gap between the BBC’s revenues and that of commercial media. The BBC Trust’s decision on the local video plans will be a game-changer for local commercial media in the UK

Kangaroo, the BBC/ITV/Channel 4 VOD project, looks unlikely to see the light of day any time soon, based on the Competition Commission’s (CC) provisional findings announced on 3rd December

ITV has agreed to provide 7 day catch-up and archive content to Virgin Media’s TV customers. By closing the last major gap in its VOD offering, Virgin Media can better exploit VOD as a differentiator with Sky, thereby assisting customer retention

ITV also stands to gain from the circa £5-10 million per annum that it could receive for distribution of its catch-up content and the addition of 500 hours of top archive content to TV Choice, Virgin Media’s subscription VOD service. There appears no corresponding downside risk to ITV advertising revenues

The announcement highlights the future role of Kangaroo, the proposed BBC/ITV/Channel 4 joint venture, in supplying archive material to complete Virgin Media’s VOD line up, and the remedies the Competition Commission is considering to protect wholesale VOD customers

Our current forecast of UK advertising revenues in 2009 is a decline of 12.2% across all the display media, led by a steep fall of 19% in newspapers, a result of the double whammy of the migration of classified advertising to the internet and the economic crisis

Visibility is poor for TV advertising spend beyond January and February, which we expect to be down 10-15%. Although the influence of the internet on TV has been less severe than on the press, our initial forecast for the full year is of a 10% decline, due to the recession and deflationary pressures

We expect internet advertising to continue growing through the recession, but at vastly lower levels – we project only 2.1% growth in 2009, a sharp deceleration from 20% in 2008, and growth will be driven entirely by search, as both online classified and display spend are falling as advertisers in key categories cut back

Kangaroo – the proposed BBC Worldwide/ITV/Channel 4 video-on-demand (VOD) service – has been terminated by the Competition Commission (CC) due to fears that it could control the wholesale and retail supply of UK TV VOD

In our view the CC decision is a lucky escape for all three shareholders since it will save them from investing potentially tens of millions in an ill-advised venture which could have become a bottomless money pit when they can least afford it

Near term ITV and Channel 4 will refocus their internet strategies around their own portals and online syndication deals, but these are unlikely to deliver significant revenue; Marquee – the BBC’s proposition to open up iPlayer to other PSB broadcasters – could help, with the advantage of being very low cost

Project Canvas is the BBC/ITV/BT backed proposal for next generation Freeview and Freesat services that embraces IPTV reception, new EPG, home storage and HDTV applications

Setting up Canvas as a not-for-profit consortium and making it non-exclusive to content providers should avoid the competition issues which killed Kangaroo, but many questions remain and technical and regulatory delays could push back the launch to 2011

We do not expect Canvas to make a major difference to non-linear viewing of audiovisual content – its importance lies much more in future-proofing the ‘Free TV’ viewing experience on the terrestrial and satellite platforms

Google’s announcement that it will offer ‘interest-based’ advertising to key partners on YouTube and its AdSense publisher network from next month, with a wider rollout later this year, raises the ante for behavioural targeting

Targeting based on users’ activity on publisher websites has become widespread, but concerns over privacy have slowed deployment of technologies that track users’ entire click-stream activity on the internet, such as Phorm

Exponents believe that behavioural targeting will boost the market for internet display, which we estimate was worth £650 million in 2008. In our view, its main impact will be to accelerate the shift to performance-based pricing