There were approximately 19 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of June 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q2 increased by half a percentage point, following stabilisation in Q1, the first material since the early years of UK broadband

Looking at net additions in the quarter, Q2 saw a sequential drop of 23%, the lowest Q1 to Q2 sequential decline since 2005 . Year-on-year growth in net adds, at 51%, continued to accelerate rapidly

Virgin Media’s Q2 results showed real strength in the top line, with continuing growth in cable revenue due to increases in both price and volume compounded by long-awaited growth in revenue from mobile and B2B, although overall performance was compromised to an extent by higher costs

The sale of VMtv to Sky cements a de facto pay TV duopoly by clarifying the distinctive wholesale and retail roles of the two leading players, against which others will find it hard to compete

The outlook continues to look encouraging despite the economic environment and this is reflected in management’s plan to return £700 million of capital, a historic milestone in the history of UK cable

The transaction size means that the OFT was obliged to examine BSkyB’s purchase of the VMtv channels. The transaction will probably be approved because of the small impact on Sky’s share of NAR (Net Advertising Revenue), which will rise from around 14% to 16%

The more pressing competition concern, which has attracted little attention, is Sky’s growing market power in the determination of carriage fee payments. Nevertheless the lack of companies actively prepared to complain to the OFT probably means that the transaction will go through without a murmur

Separately, the likely purchase of Five by Richard Desmond raises regulatory issues to do with the possible reduction of media ‘plurality’. The Sky/VMtv transaction and Channel 4’s taking over UKTV advertising sales also places Five Sales in a significantly weaker position, but any attempts to join with one of the big three sales groups (ITV, Channel 4 or Sky) may well be rejected by the competition regulators

There were approximately 18.7 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of March 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q1 increased for the first time since the early years of the industry, although the increase, from 5.7% to 5.9% was very slight. In our view it should be interpreted as a stabilisation

Looking at net additions in the quarter, Q1 saw the sequential growth drop back to a more normal level of 9% after the 54% spike in the previous quarter, but year-on-year growth, at 21%, was the first really substantial increase since Q3 2005, when market growth was coming to the end of its exponential phase

MVNOs have attracted much attention recently. Virgin Mobile's IPO revealed attractive economics and discount MVNOs in certain smaller European markets have had success. This report considers the question of whether Virgin Mobile is a one-off or the start of a trend, and whether discount MVNOs can replicate their success in larger countries.

 

 

 

NTL/Virgin Mobile

20 July 2010

NTL’s acquisition of Virgin Mobile will improve NTL’s prospects for revenue growth and enable it to exploit the Virgin brand and marketing expertise 

Hostilities between Sky and Virgin have intensified during the course of cable’s re-launch, Sky’s announcement of its pay-DTT plans, and bilateral negotiations over channel carriage fee payments on the satellite and cable platforms

Sky and Virgin blogs

20 July 2010

The spat between Virgin and Sky over cable carriage of Sky basic channels has generated much blogging, mostly supportive of Virgin, although neither party appears to be gaining from the ‘zero sum game’ dispute