The UK residential communications sector maintained strong revenue growth of 5% in Q4 on a reported basis, or 4% underlying, bolstered by strong volumes and solid pricing, with recent price increase implementations supporting the latter going forward

It is still hard to see a very significant competitive impact from BT Sport, with BT’s broadband net adds up by only 20k-30k on a year earlier, but the impact on costs is very clear, with increased sports rights costs, increased marketing costs and pay TV box/device subsidies driving up the cost base of all operators

Looking forward, in the short term market volumes are likely to be suppressed by recent bad weather lengthening provisioning times, and the detailed timings of price increases will suppress ARPU growth. In the medium term the outlook is much stronger, although the prospect of increased competitive activity around the next Premier League rights auction still casts a shadow

The Court of Appeal has judged that the Competition Appeal Tribunal erred in law in its rejection of the Ofcom Wholesale Must Offer remedy for premium sports by failing to deal adequately with all of Ofcom’s competition concerns but agreed with the Competition Appeal Tribunal that Ofcom had acted within its regulatory powers Sky’s appeal against the 2010 Ofcom decision will therefore be re-heard at the Competition Appeal Tribunal and we believe the likelihood is that the Wholesale Must Offer remedy will be approved, while the jurisdiction issue may yet have some life if Sky takes its appeal to the Supreme Court The seven year old pay-TV saga is far from over as major changes have occurred in the last four years. Irrespective of the progress of the Competition Appeal Tribunal review, we think it will have little bearing on the outcome of the Premier League auction in light of the strategic objectives of Sky and BT

In an audacious move to minimise the risk of mobile social disruption, Facebook is to acquire leading messaging app Whatsapp for up to $19 billion, or $42 per user, or 11% of Facebook’s current market cap

Messaging platforms are becoming the new social media, particularly for younger demographics, and while Facebook/WhatsApp will be huge in mobile, other services could still side-step into Facebook’s territory

The price for WhatsApp may be justifiable to counter the threat, but Facebook has only bought one of many, and paying a full price may encourage the others; expensively buying every competitor does not feel like a long-term strategy

Virgin Media’s consumer cable revenue growth dipped down to 3% in Q4, largely driven by weaker RGU growth during the year feeding through

Subscriber net adds were however much stronger in Q4, and the company has confidently implemented firm price increases this month, backed up by another speed increase across all tiers

OCF declined by 5%, or 1% excluding one-off items, with increased sports content costs from BT and Sky weighing. However, the company remains confident of mid-single digit OCF growth in 2014, with growth improving through the year

Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth was again weak, flat on the previous quarter in reported terms at -10%, but underlying revenue growth declined slightly, despite a strong recovery in GDP growth

There are some limited signs of recovery – improved contract net adds, sustained data volume growth, an end in sight to ARPU dilution – but realistically Vodafone’s admirable organic investment push will not reap rewards within the year

More near term interest is on M&A, with Vodafone shopping for fixed line operations, important in-market mobile consolidation regulatory decisions coming up, and interest in Vodafone itself possible after the Verizon deal closes later this month

TalkTalk enjoyed a healthy December quarter, with broadband net adds steady, TV net adds accelerating, churn falling and revenue growth accelerating to 5%

Revenue growth was boosted by a big wholesale contract win and the timing of line rental price increases, but the company did achieve a complex price restructuring with no negative ARPU impact

With churn heading down again, the company appears to have successfully weathered the BT Sport-related storm, leaving it on track to achieve its aims

Operating profits took a dip in H1 2014 as Sky absorbed the £110 million hike in Premier League (PL) football rights, saw marketing spend rise as a result of strong product growth and invested £40 million in its connected TV services

Growth has stayed positive across the range of TV and home communications products, while the new User Interface due to launch in the next few months promises to unlock significant incremental revenues as well as underline the quality of Sky offerings in movies and entertainment

Sky has no time to lose in building on its strengths in content, service quality and customer loyalty as the next PL auction looms towards the end of calendar 2014/first half of 2015, but the strategy appears sound with strong revenue and upside potential

BT grew both its Group level and consumer retail revenue for the first time in years, and while the extent of growth was flattered by one-off factors, growth is still positive on an underlying basis, an impressive achievement indeed for a European fixed incumbent

This is mainly driven by robust pricing, declining line losses, and continuing fibre adoption, with the indirect impact of BT Sport still hard to discern, but the direct impact absorbing all of BT’s hard won cost reduction gains to leave EBITDA flat

The outlook is positive in that BT can achieve its current financial guidance even with the millstone of BT Sport costs, but the uncertain outcome of the next Premier League rights auction casts a shadow on prospects thereafter

Ofcom has been instructed by the UK government to charge the mobile operators ‘full market value’ for the 2G spectrum they have been using for many years, despite there being no liquid market for the spectrum

Ofcom’s general approach to such an imponderable question is eminently sensible, but we disagree with the detail of their methodology on three key aspects, which makes the current proposed charges over three times too high in our view, effectively charging the industry a one-off tax of £4.5bn

The elevated fee levels are (perhaps) still affordable on their own, but coupled with other recent regulatory decisions the UK is in danger of being seen as a hostile regulatory environment, with negative consequences for future investment levels

2013 has seen yet another year of strong growth in consumer adoption of mobile devices and screens adding to the challenges facing traditional media. Press and radio have long been affected, but television is now starting to feel the heat

BT and Sky’s contest for premium pay-TV sports rights has intensified. August saw the launch of BT Sport, while BT’s acquisition of the European football rights in November was a clear statement of intent, spending half of Channel 4’s total programming budget on approx. 200 hours of content

The UK has seen buoyant advertising growth of around 4% in 2013, with similar growth expected in 2014, in the context of the strongest economic recovery in Europe