Reports of the death of the PC have been greatly exaggerated, but rapid adoption of mobile devices is changing how, when, where and why consumers access the internet.

Over the next few years, we forecast that PC user growth will be limited to population growth, smartphone penetration will rise from two thirds currently to over 80% by 2020, and tablet users will converge to the same level as the PC audience.

In addition, we project that overall internet consumption will nearly double by 2020, with PC-based usage declining before levelling out, and smartphone and tablet use increasing threefold.

Of the traditional media sectors, we expect print media to be the most negatively affected by the rise of the mobile internet, with less impact on radio and TV viewing and advertising likely to be relatively resilient.

A cheaper iPhone has been discussed almost since the original launch in 2007, but we believe costs have fallen and the market developed to the point that it now makes sense for Apple to offer a $200-$300 (unsubsidised) model.

We see a positive but fairly small financial impact on Apple. The key benefit would be defensive: by extending the ecosystem and preserving iOS as developers’ first choice, Apple would secure the whole portfolio.

We believe a well-executed and distributed $200-$300 iPhone would sell double-digit millions of units – a significant challenge to Android OEMs and Google. However, the US market’s pricing structure might limit the impact there.

TalkTalk’s broadband net adds held up well in the June quarter despite weak seasonality and an aggressive competitive push by BT

ARPU growth was steady, which allowed rising subscriber growth to drive consumer revenue growth up to just over 2%, and growth at the group level rose to just under 2%

With the BT Sport impact appearing slight, and regulatory outcomes looking reasonably benign, the outlook is much less uncertain than before

FY 2013 produced strong growth as revenues increased by 6.5% and costs by only 6.1% as a large £188 million rise in programming spend was more than balanced by the achievement of efficiencies in operating service costs The big surprise was the announcement of a £60-70 million impact on EBIT in 2014 as Sky seeks to accelerate the uptake of connected TV across its base The big threat in 2014 is the possible loss of European Champions League rights to BT Sport from the 2015/16 season, while the main challenge is how to maximise connected TV revenues, where clear communication of the benefits and enhancements will play a vital role

BT’s underlying revenue growth of -1% in the June quarter was a slight dip from the March quarter, but remains very impressive compared to historic trends and international peers

BT Sport gained over 500k sign-ups, a pretty respectable figure in context, but so far it is looking mostly defensive, with any impact on broadband trends in the quarter indiscernible

Regulated cuts to copper pricing look like they will drop out completely from 2014/15, and BT’s DSL competitors are starting to push fibre more aggressively, both of which will give BT a very solid boost from 2014

Vodafone Europe’s reported organic service revenue growth improved in the June quarter for the first time in over a year, albeit to the still-somewhat-unimpressive figure of -7.2%

This was however helped by slightly improving MTR cuts and the previous quarter being hit by the leap year effect; on an underlying basis growth declined again

Contract net adds continue to be weak, ARPU continues to suffer from the dilutive Vodafone Red tariffs, and the company continues to invest heavily in fixed line and lightly in mobile, the wrong way around in our view

Recorded music retail sales in Japan were flat in 2012 at $5.8 billion on the unexpected bounceback of CD sales, amidst the ongoing collapse of mobile music sales

Smartphone adoption is driving up internet track sales, which topped mobile track sales in 2012, but the internet’s price discount to mobile is squeezing track revenues

Japan will be dynamic in 2013 and beyond for ‘access’ subscription services, newly launched by Sony, J-pop label-backed RecoChoku, and carriers

By the end of 2013 there will be more iOS and Android devices in use than PCs. Google is using Plus and Android to reposition itself to take advantage of this, extending its reach and capturing far more behavioural data

We believe a helpful way to look at Google is as a vast machine learning project: mobile will feed the machine with far more data, making the barriers to entry in search and adjacent fields even higher

For Google, Apple’s iOS is primarily another place to get reach: we see limited existential conflict between the two. However, mobile use models remain in flux, with apps and mobile social challenging Google’s grip on data collection

Germany’s fixed line market is in state of flux as Liberty Global and Vodafone, the third and fourth largest players respectively, are reportedly engaged in a bidding war for Kabel Deutschland (currently number two).

The Vodafone bid would offer the most direct cost synergies, but this would be at greater execution risk. The Liberty bid would finally reunify most of the German cable sector, but would consequently need stronger undertakings to get anti-trust clearance.

Either merger would create a strong number two triple play operator, increasing competitive pressure on Deutsche Telekom and Sky Deutschland.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on reques