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"RTL has proven that it can drive momentum in the subscription market," said François Godard, an analyst at the British consulting firm Enders Analysis. He believes that Sky and RTL could become the most important TV providers in Germany.
The largest UK altnets are now all at or close to EBITDA positive, but still heavily cashflow negative even pre-interest costs and with paused builds, due to various below-the-line cash costs requiring continuous funding. EBITDA margins of as much as 35%+ are required to actually be cashflow breakeven.
Altnet economics are still challenging even if debts are fully written off, with a payback of more than 5 years on customer acquisition and connection costs alone.
The consolidation endgame is increasingly imminent, with the outcome likely to be a mix of CityFibre/VMO2 acquisitions, stand-alone niche players continuing, and abandoned assets, with the outcome for the rest of the sector more benign under any scenario than current trends.
Any actual enforcement isn’t pegged until 2026. The CMS has deliberately broken up its measures into three waves to speed up the first wave, said Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at media analysis firm Enders. “It just goes to show how slow the regulatory process is compared to tech companies’ ability to iterate and transform their products at speed,” he said. “Google’s new products are already impacting publishers, and it is only likely to go further, so any delay could mean extra months adapting to a difficult operating environment.”
It’s a bit of a tight-rope walk for the CMA. “Finding a middle ground on things like fair ranking, the CMS could upset Google and publishers alike if it isn’t careful,” added MacEwan. “A key tension is between principles-based and outcomes-based regulation.”
This report tracks Netflix’s original content output, which declined in 2024: docuseries and stand-up comedy were the only genres that grew in volume
We provide an overview of what programming is working, by overlaying Netflix’s ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata onto global and UK viewing
We analyse Netflix’s approach to film and, in particular, the difference in output and success of more and less expensive features
Research by Enders Analysis showed that the UK’s network operators lost contract subscribers for the first time last year, while MVNOs gained 1.65 million.
The research specialist attributes the rise of virtual operators to the cost of living crisis and longer handset lifespans, which has increased demand for Sim-only contracts, “a traditional area of strength” for the MVNOs.
That being said, Tom Harrington, Enders Analysis Head of Television, pointed out that Netflix and TF1 have had a close relationship for some time.
He noted that TF1 boss Rodolphe Belmer used to sit on Netflix’s board and that the two companies are working on Tout Pour La Lumière, the streamer’s first daily drama series, or soap, in France, which was itself branded game-changing when unveiled late last year.
“[TF1] has also no doubt noticed the performance of some of its programming that has been licensed to Netflix compared to on [on-demand service] TF1+ – the ability of certain broadcaster content to find a new audience on Netflix and thrive has been a recurrent theme in most territories over the past decade,” he wrote. Only last year, we explored how the UK was experiencing a Suits effect as older, rather parochial British broadcaster shows found themselves being given a second lease of life on the Netflix most-watched list.
Francois Goddard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, noted that women’s football received a bump from the 2022 tournament. It looks like the same thing could happen again at the end of this summer too.
It’s a good move for Disney, according to Goddard, because the company “needs more content in Europe, more local content and more regular content.”
Advertisers are increasingly interested in women’s sport too. In the age of subscriptions and streaming, live sports are still a popular placement for advertising. “This makes it even more attractive as an option for local, regular content,” says Goddard. As with the price of the rights, the cost of advertising against women’s sport is understood to be less than in men’s sports, providing marketers and brands with a way to make their money go further in the sports space.
“This is a very innovative deal,” with “nothing of the sort elsewhere,” Enders Analysis analyst François Godard tells The Hollywood Reporter. “It pivots Netflix into aggregation.”
Will Netflix bring this approach to other markets? “They could,” the expert says. “They are a trial-and-error company. So maybe they will wait first to see how it goes in France.”
The Bouygues subsidiary has accepted that its brand will be "swallowed up" by a larger entity, even though Netflix will offer its subscribers in France a TF1 section. "They have bet that their programs are strong enough to emerge," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders.
TF1 is also demonstrating opportunism. Rodolphe Belmer is showing that the channel can be useful to the global streaming leader and isn't stuck in the old world. TF1 is thus maximizing its exposure. "TF1 doesn't want to be overwhelmed by the abundance of content and must remain the leader. Hence the importance of being the first to conclude a deal, and not with just anyone," the analyst continues.
For the Californian group, this alliance also represents a way to "keep the public on its platform," adds François Godard. While offering a wider range of programs, including, for the first time, news and a news channel (LCI).