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What's happening in France could be a warning to the rest of Europe's sports media markets, according to Francois Godard, media analyst at Enders Analysis.

"Dazn's attitude in France may also send a message to the Serie A in Italy,” Godard said. “They have no contractual option to back out in Italy (unlike in France), but the broadcasting economics there are as challenging as in France, and competition for rights is minimal.”

True, some regions may have greater potential, including the US where average revenues per user are more than double those of the UK, according to Karen Egan of Enders Analysis. And applications can be expanded. If you can beam direct to mobile phones, then why not laptops, cars or tractors?

A study published last week by Enders Analysis showed that the BBC increased its total viewing hours by 3 per cent in 2024, while ITV fell by 5 per cent and Sky by 6 per cent. Disney Plus recorded a drop in UK viewing hours but BBC iPlayer grew by 24 per cent.

Enders co-author Bella Monkcom believes the BBC is succeeding because of the breadth of iPlayer, in comparison with subscription-based streamers dominated by scripted drama and film.

“They are honing in on those,” says Monkcom. “They know that is what is going to bring in viewers, especially young viewers.”

“The price is so low, it can only go up really substantially,” François Godard, a senior media analyst for Enders, a media research and analysis company, told The Athletic.

“I think (Netflix) liked very much what they did,” said Godard. “They say they want eventful sporting competitions and they did a great job at making this an event at Christmas with Beyoncé. And I think what they may like with Formula One is that it is an eventful thing.”

While he felt it was “very difficult to forecast” how high the fee would go, he said it could go “much higher” than the last deal. “Hundreds of millions, yes,” Godard said. “I would see this more than doubling because of this potential we have.”

Yet viewing figures for last year, highlighted by Enders Analysis, showed that broadcasters’ reach and viewing fell, with average weekly reach on the TV set falling to 77% compared with 90% in 2019. By any standards, this is an alarming rate of decline over such a short period.

“You can see Snap is [now] applying the playbook that has worked so well for the bigger ad platforms [Meta and Google],” said Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at Enders Analysis. “It is still far behind [the bigger platforms] on revenues and [average revenue per user], so there is room for decent growth in SMB advertiser numbers and revenues if it gets the execution right.”

James Barford, head of telecoms, Enders Analysis, put these results into context. He said, “We think that the highlight of CityFibre’s 2024 full year results announced today was confirmation of the company having broken even in EBITDA terms, the first of the altnets to do this. Most look like they will struggle to ever break even in EBITDA terms as stand-alone entities, let alone earn a decent return on investment, highlighting the need for consolidation.

“CityFibre is well placed to lead this in our view, but it may need to resolve its financing situation and fully onboard Sky as a wholesale customer before it can really get going. In the interim, we expect altnets’ roll-outs to continue to slow, with slowing customer net adds following, improving the environment for the broadband incumbent players.”

Researchers at Enders Analysis believe Starlink could address some 3.5% of the UK broadband market by 2027, equivalent to around 1 million subscribers. That’s not disastrous for the incumbents, but nor is it helpful in an industry with heavy investment requirements, and which has historically struggled to earn returns above its cost of capital. It’s also possible that future improvements in satellite technology could narrow the performance gap with fibre. The fact that Musk has a track record of sustaining heavy losses in search of market dominance should also worry rich-world incumbents.

Media analyst Claire Enders said Trump was “cowing all of corporate America . . . and has made no secret of his planned vendettas against any media reporting unfavourably on him and his policies”. 

“Payments by ABC News in 2024 and [possible payments by] CBS News now show how frightened corporate America is of the powers of this president and of his agenda,” Enders added.