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In the midst of the Brexit news morass, here are some framing thoughts for the bigger picture…and why all roads lead to no-deal, after the Commons’ rejection of the package of the withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future trade relations between the EU and UK.
TalkTalk is delivering on its subscriber and revenue growth targets but is straining to get there. Price rises such as a £4 ‘TV access fee’ look increasingly risky
Whilst migrating to discounted high-speed helps to deliver top-line growth, margins are c. 40% lower; an unwelcome dent to already negative cashflow and stressed leverage
Both TalkTalk’s focus on revenue growth in a tight market and fibre rollout plans look increasingly unaffordable; a more modest ambition of stable revenues might allow a healthier business model to unfold
Consolidated TV viewing continued its seemingly relentless decline in 2018, falling 5% year-on-year (YOY)—its worst drop since the phenomenon began in 2011.
Meanwhile, unmatched TV set use—which includes Netflix, Amazon and YouTube consumption, as well as gaming—continued its upwards trajectory across all age groups, now accounting for 20% of total TV set time.
Consolidated TV viewing is increasingly reliant on its core viewers, with half of all viewing accounted for by the 20% of people who watch the most, up from two-fifths in 2010.
Julian Aquilina was quoted in The Times on Premier League on the defence, he said “When Facebook tried to buy cricket TV rights in India, it put in a huge bid and everyone thought it was really serious. It didn’t get them, but Facebook would have wanted those rights because that would have driven a huge increase in Indian users to the service. In the UK, Facebook, Netflix and Amazon don’t have this problem.”
Joseph Evans was quoted in The Times on Get lost, Alexa: most Britons shun digital assistants over spying fears, he said “The privacy concerns stem from the fact that these devices are constantly listening out for the ‘wake’ word. You have to trust Amazon or Google will be respectful of your privacy, but also that there are no bugs in the software. We’ve seen instances of Alexa waking by mistake and recording everything that a user says.”
Claire Enders was quoted in the Financial Times on Rupert Murdoch’s News UK takes a potshot at BBC radio, Claire said “He has an absolute ideological objection to public service broadcasting in general and the BBC in particular.”
Smart speakers like the Amazon Echo and Google Home accelerated their prodigious rate of adoption in Q4 2018, and we expect they will soon be in 20% of UK homes
Amazon and Google price devices low to drive adoption to mass-market levels and win the race to own the home, in contrast to Apple’s profit-making strategy for its speaker
Echo’s main strategic benefits to Amazon are the scope for data collection and the intelligence it supports, and gatekeeping partners’ access to customers
Matti Littunen was quoted in the Financial Times on Facebook: false friends "Great fakes, by definition, are invisible. No one can really quantify fake Facebook accounts — advertised online at $7 per pop. Necessary privacy safeguards could foster a proliferation of fakes, by impeding online identity checks. But there will always be one metric advertisers can rely on." as Matti Littunen, of Enders Analysis, points out: "Sales directly generated by Facebook ads. If these flag, it is time to worry about fakes"
Sky’s revenue growth under Comcast appears to have accelerated since it last reported as an independent company, largely driven by sports rights expansion in Italy, which also drove bumper subscriber growth in Q3 2018
Sky UK likely enjoyed a steadier performance, helped by accelerating high speed adoption, a price rise in April, increased international sales, and improving premium channel adoption on third-party platforms
Comcast expects continued acceleration into 2019, with profitability taking a hit from increased sports rights in Italy in H1, but this is more than compensated for by reduced English Premier League rights costs in H2