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Karen Egan, of Enders Analysis, said: “There are certainly some opportunities for cross-selling Vodafone’s broadband product to Three’s 9.3m mobile subscribers, but broadband is a really tough market right now with very slim margins so they’ll be quite constrained in the level of incentive discounts they can offer.”
2024 was the first year in history in which the network operators lost contract subscribers. MVNOs added 1.7m.
In-contract price increases are dominating revenue trends, with a somewhat flatlining outlook on an underlying basis but boosted by accounting technicalities.
We expect the Vodafone3 merger to close on 1 of May which has implications for buyout timing and will prompt higher capex, some early network upsides, and big strategic decisions for both Vodafone3 and BT/EE.
Looking to 2030, we forecast that broadcaster viewing will continue to decline, driven by a drop in live viewing. Non-live is increasing but will be unable to make up for the total broadcaster shortfall.
Change is demarcated by age: while under-35s will watch more YouTube on the TV, with SVOD steady, the inverse will occur for over-35s.
The heavy-watching over-65s remain mostly insulated from change for now, however, those aged 35-54 are currently undergoing the biggest behavioural shift: beyond 2030 they will eventually carry their modern habits into their time-rich retirements.
But few analysts believe the scale of the cost increases was predicted. “I’m not sure anyone would have put together a model with a 46 per cent tariff, so this is going to be the key question as in the US market they may well have to move the price,” says Gareth Sutcliffe at Enders Analysis.
The industry, however, welcomes the relatively high pricing of the games — hoping that it sets a new standard. “Nintendo can clearly move its pricing on its top franchises,” says Sutcliffe. “That is clearly the new premium price point for all AAA games and they are providing premium games.”
Gaming revenue has been broadly flat for several years, according to Sutcliffe of Enders Analysis, with software sales compensating for declining demand for ageing Xbox and PlayStation consoles.
Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis, said the extent of Sky’s commitment had previously been unclear. “As such, any indications that they are fully backing CityFibre will be very well received,” she added.
But as Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis pointed out, Substack only makes money by taking a 10% cut of its writers’ subscriptions, so it has no financial stake in a free newsletter whose sole purpose is to reach as wide an audience as possible.
“That eliminates some risk, but it’s no cast-iron guarantee – anyone could start a far-right newsletter, for example, and then it’s up to Substack to determine if it should be taken down,” MacEwan said. “Last year it faced a user backlash for refusing to demonetize newsletters that were publishing extreme right-wing views. These questions aren’t just going to go away, especially if Substack rolls out new personalization or discoverability features.”
“Economic slowdown or recession and reduced consumer spend would naturally impact ad budgets,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior media analyst at research group Enders Analysis. “[It] is a real risk because of the sheer scale of the tariffs and their impact on the actual flow of goods.”
He told The Media Leader that business confidence also “shouldn’t be underrated as a factor, because marketing plans are based on business plans and the uncertainty around tariffs will put some of those into a holding pattern”.
“Europe and the UK may look like more attractive regions for these businesses in light of US policies, but that still won’t make up for the wider economic turmoil caused by tariffs,” MacEwan explained.
The USA is reshaping the global economic order in defiance of trade treaties; however, the rest of the world is observing trade treaties and absorbing the shock of the tariff wall erected around the US market.
The UK is relatively spared among the 90 origins hit by the USA's tariffs on imports of goods, which do not apply to services' exports to the US, twice the value of goods, including media (e.g. TV programmes) and advertising services.
The timing of the deteriorating global outlook is poor due to the headwinds facing the UK economy that are impairing the recovery of advertising in 2025.
Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at Enders Analysis, previously told Business Insider he estimates that "almost half of Apple's revenue is exposed to China through direct sales and the supply chain."