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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
On 18 May 2023, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2023 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, and Salesforce
With over 550 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation, and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry
This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the future of digital experiences, the streaming economy, and harnessing AI for good. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website
James Barford was quoted in Reuters on "Drahi boosts stake in BT to 24.5%, will not make an offer"
24 May 2023Enders analyst James Barford said Drahi's share purchase showed the telecoms investor's confidence that BT would in future reap the benefits of the fibre build which is expected to more than double future cash flow.
"That's possibly the opportunity that he's seen here, in that if he believes that they can deliver on that, and that it's a strong path," Barford said.
We forecast broadcaster viewing to shrink to below half of total video viewing by 2028 (48%)—down from 64% today—as streaming services gain share of long-form viewing time.
On the key advertising battleground of the TV set, broadcasters will still retain scale with a 63% viewing share by 2028, even as SVOD and YouTube double their impact.
Short-form video will continue to displace long-form as video-first apps (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) gain further popularity and others (e.g. Facebook, Instagram) continue a relentless pivot to video. This will expand the amount of video watched and transition habits—even amongst older demographics.
François Godard was quoted in Reuters on "Exclusive: Prosiebensat.1, Sky revive talks on German TV tie-up"
23 May 2023"For Comcast the issue is about sending a message of decisiveness to investors," said François Godard, senior media and telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis, adding that Sky did not have enough scale to compete in the German market.
"ProSieben and their Joyn platform could be the solution," he said.
Twitter Blue to the rescue? In the three months since the $8 per month subscription launched, only 300,000 users have registered, generating a mere $28 million in revenue, according to Enders Analysis. On the horizon is an ad free Twitter Blue (cost to be confirmed) and a gold verification for organisations at $1,000 per month. Neither have generated any revenue to date. But Musk’s masterplan is to turn Twitter into a Chinese-style super-app under the holding company “X Corp” offering messaging, payments and entertainment. But according to Joseph Teasdale, Enders’s head of technology, “it’s a pipe dream”. Twitter has neither the regulatory environment nor demographics which underpinned the success of the Chinese apps that Musk wishes to emulate. He needs the advertisers.
Joseph Teasdale, head of technology at Enders Analysis, says some of the problems faced by the digital darlings during that formative time (the terrible technological teen years) were that they remained “good pitches still looking for a business plan”. Investors will happily splurge cash on the hope of future success, but only for a finite amount of time.
James Barford was quoted in BBC News on "BT to cut 55,000 jobs with up to a fifth replaced by AI"
19 May 2023James Barford, head of telecoms research at Enders Analysis, said the BT job cuts were mostly about fewer people being needed in building networks, whereas the Vodafone cuts were "more general efficiency savings".
He said that in both cases plans were "already broadly in place, with savings previously described in monetary terms rather than headcount reduction".
Possibly, the firms are now talking about job cuts "to help convince sceptical investors that they will actually deliver the promised savings", Mr Barford added.
Vodafone: A self-justifying strategy
18 May 2023Whilst Vodafone’s new strategy has some merits, its attempts to appease everyone involves inherent contradictions, ambiguity, and contrived attempts to prove its value as a conglomerate.
Its rapidly declining FCF outlook is calling dividend sustainability into question but there is much insistence that financial prospects will improve from here. We view this year’s guidance as achievable, but not easily so, and growth thereafter as on the optimistic side.
Corporate break-up is off the table for now with e& in the strategic driving seat and in empire-building mode. Consolidation in the UK and Italy remains on the agenda however, and arguably is the most tangible potential upside for investors.