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Enders analyst James Barford said Drahi's share purchase showed the telecoms investor's confidence that BT would in future reap the benefits of the fibre build which is expected to more than double future cash flow.
"That's possibly the opportunity that he's seen here, in that if he believes that they can deliver on that, and that it's a strong path," Barford said.
We forecast broadcaster viewing to shrink to below half of total video viewing by 2028 (48%)—down from 64% today—as streaming services gain share of long-form viewing time.
On the key advertising battleground of the TV set, broadcasters will still retain scale with a 63% viewing share by 2028, even as SVOD and YouTube double their impact.
Short-form video will continue to displace long-form as video-first apps (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) gain further popularity and others (e.g. Facebook, Instagram) continue a relentless pivot to video. This will expand the amount of video watched and transition habits—even amongst older demographics.
"For Comcast the issue is about sending a message of decisiveness to investors," said François Godard, senior media and telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis, adding that Sky did not have enough scale to compete in the German market.
"ProSieben and their Joyn platform could be the solution," he said.
Twitter Blue to the rescue? In the three months since the $8 per month subscription launched, only 300,000 users have registered, generating a mere $28 million in revenue, according to Enders Analysis. On the horizon is an ad free Twitter Blue (cost to be confirmed) and a gold verification for organisations at $1,000 per month. Neither have generated any revenue to date. But Musk’s masterplan is to turn Twitter into a Chinese-style super-app under the holding company “X Corp” offering messaging, payments and entertainment. But according to Joseph Teasdale, Enders’s head of technology, “it’s a pipe dream”. Twitter has neither the regulatory environment nor demographics which underpinned the success of the Chinese apps that Musk wishes to emulate. He needs the advertisers.
Joseph Teasdale, head of technology at Enders Analysis, says some of the problems faced by the digital darlings during that formative time (the terrible technological teen years) were that they remained “good pitches still looking for a business plan”. Investors will happily splurge cash on the hope of future success, but only for a finite amount of time.
James Barford, head of telecoms research at Enders Analysis, said the BT job cuts were mostly about fewer people being needed in building networks, whereas the Vodafone cuts were "more general efficiency savings".
He said that in both cases plans were "already broadly in place, with savings previously described in monetary terms rather than headcount reduction".
Possibly, the firms are now talking about job cuts "to help convince sceptical investors that they will actually deliver the promised savings", Mr Barford added.
Whilst Vodafone’s new strategy has some merits, its attempts to appease everyone involves inherent contradictions, ambiguity, and contrived attempts to prove its value as a conglomerate.
Its rapidly declining FCF outlook is calling dividend sustainability into question but there is much insistence that financial prospects will improve from here. We view this year’s guidance as achievable, but not easily so, and growth thereafter as on the optimistic side.
Corporate break-up is off the table for now with e& in the strategic driving seat and in empire-building mode. Consolidation in the UK and Italy remains on the agenda however, and arguably is the most tangible potential upside for investors.
Alice Enders, a music industry expert at the consultancy Enders Analysis, said Masuch was a legend in the music industry whose “shoes may be hard to fill”. But she said that, as a former CFO, Coesfeld understood the business “extremely well”. She described him as a “good choice” to continue the “sound financial management” at BMG.
Yaccarino “has the right credentials” to reassure large advertisers, says Joseph Teasdale, head of technology at Enders Analysis. He adds that Musk “may well be sick of running Twitter” and hiring a new CEO will allow him to turn his attention elsewhere.
But “the risk is Musk, as the majority owner, will be as unpredictable and interventionist as he has been as CEO.”