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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

ITV Q3 2023 results: A tough winter ahead

8 November 2023

ITV Studios (+9%, £1.52 billion) continues to prop up the company's advertising business (-7%, £1.23 billion)—which faces macro headwinds—helping external revenues for the first nine months of 2023 slightly upwards to £2.53 billion

Q4 is shaping up as a particularly difficult period for advertising with the lead up to Christmas potentially down by 15% YoY

ITVX continues to show growth; given that this is mostly a result of cannibalising ITV's linear audience, there is a ceiling on its potential

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Virgin Media O2: Challenges and opportunities

8 November 2023

With a difficult price rise adjustment now behind it, VMO2’s subscriber momentum is much improved, in part aided by accelerated network expansion.

Backbook pricing remains under pressure on the fixed network with revenues down 1.2% in spite of sizeable price rises and footprint expansion—upcoming OTS may exacerbate this issue.

VMO2 has thus far only countered the downside of the UK’s fibre revolution. A new approach to branding and expansion of its addressable market are upside opportunities—with the ultimate potential to even deliver improvements on its previous position.

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Karen Egan was mentioned in Reuters on "Vodafone to sell Spanish arm to Zegona for $5.3 billion"

1 November 2023

Enders Analysis' Karen Egan said the multiple of 5.3 times core earnings was well below other recent deals, and was disappointing in the context of Vodafone's history in Spain, where it had paid 7.2 billion euros to buy Ono in 2014.

But she said Della Valle was under pressure to deliver a deal, and Zegona's track record in Spain made it somewhat uniquely qualified to take on the challenge.

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Karen Egan was quoted in The Times on "Vodafone’s drain in Spain ends in €5bn deal"

1 November 2023

Karen Egan at Enders Analysis said: “While the pragmatism of the move will be applauded, the valuation may be viewed as disappointing by some.”

She said this partly reflected the “intensively competitive” market in Spain, the uncertain outlook — with MasMovil, the country’s fourth-biggest operator, awaiting clearance from the European Commission for a joint venture with Orange — and Vodafone being a “keen seller”, as Della Valle was “under pressure to deliver a deal where her predecessor did not”.

Egan added, however, that Zegona’s “track record” in Spain made it “somewhat uniquely qualified to consider taking on such a challenge”.

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Streamers and studios tracker H2 2023: Debt looms large, price rises difficult

31 October 2023

Unable to match Netflix, financially-pressed Hollywood studios are cutting content output and reassessing the DTC model

Price rises are being forced through, however for challengers this is asking a lot from subs, who don’t see an improvement in product or usage

The corporate landscape is fluid—loss-making DTC platforms and revenue-plunging linear channels are candidates for M&A

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Adiós España: Vodafone Spain sold

31 October 2023

Vodafone has struck a deal to sell its ailing Spanish business in a deal worth €5bn, equivalent to 5.3x EBITDAaL.

While the pragmatism of the move will be applauded, the valuation may be viewed as disappointing by some.

The deal removes an enduring drag on the company’s financials, providing scope for better European trends, but this is one of several challenges facing the company, with the dividend policy question now to the fore.

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François Godard was quoted in The Athletic on "Why the Premier League shouldn’t be concerned by France and Italy’s TV deal woes"

31 October 2023

Rather than be alarmed by the LFP scrapping its domestic rights auction or Serie A's latest deal being criticised by the Napoli owner, Francois Godard, a senior media analyst for Enders Analysis, believes alarm bells will not be ringing inside the Premier League.

“I think the outcome in Italy is encouraging,” Godard told The Athletic. “It could have been much worse as there is no active competition between Sky and DAZN. Nevertheless, DAZN is putting in a significant amount and Sky is paying €200m (£176.6m; $210.9m) for three non-exclusive games each weekend. If I were the Premier League, I would find this reassuring.”

“If you wanted to bid, then you had to accept the minimum price, which broadcasters thought was too high,” Godard explains. “Ligue 1 tried high prices, but I don’t think they are fundamentally unhappy to go to one-on-one negotiations.

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Cloud and AI integration: Advantage Azure

31 October 2023

Cloud revenues are reflecting patterns of AI integration. As big tech companies jostle for advantage, Microsoft and Azure claim an early lead

Cloud profits remain crucial for wider tech businesses, affecting ability to innovate

Strategies to develop and market cloud-based AI tools are diverging, with uncertainty rife. The ecosystem will shift as the demands of consumers and regulators becomes clearer

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