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One clear problem with The Way is that it just didn’t belong on BBC One, points out Tom Harrington, head of television at media experts Enders Analysis. “The Way’s major hindrance is that it is not really a BBC One drama – its tone and intent is more in line with what you would have expected from BBC Two.” With fewer original BBC dramas being commissioned – the broadcaster’s original television budget was cut by close to £100m over the past 12 months as part of a commissioning freeze – “almost everything now gets put on the main channel and has the ratings expectations that come with that.”

“Canal could separate its distribution and publishing activities [for the channels in question, Editor's note], as it did for the Canal+ channel after the 1986 law and for years. In fact, the 20% is not a determining obstacle,” explains Philippe Bailly, founder of NPA Conseil. “And, more precisely, one could imagine a new South African entity being created which would be listed in the country. The law could also change, which the local press does not rule out,” adds François Godard, analyst at Enders. A solution which would be compatible with Canal's desire to have a listing in Johannesburg.

Africa is one of the engines of growth for the encrypted chain. “This would be Canal’s biggest acquisition in at least two decades,” observes François Godard.

Meanwhile, concerns over the future of traditional TV are weighing on the shares. Analysis by research firm Enders found that broadcast TV viewing fell 3%, to two hours 28 minutes per person a day, in 2023 compared with the previous year. Younger audiences were down 80% on pre-pandemic levels.

Karen Egan, head of mobile at Enders Analysis, warns VMO2 faces a “tricky” year ahead. 

“On both mobile and fixed the company had significant advantages in the market for a long time – custom plans on mobile and very high speeds on fixed,” she says.

“Those advantages are now largely eroded, making it much more difficult to make headway in the market.”

“Liberty Global tends to take a very financially pragmatic approach to businesses – they don’t let sentimentality get in the way of a good deal,” says Egan.



“Telefonica is likely to have a more strategic view of the UK business, something that aligns well with their other operations around the world.”

“The jury is still out on whether that can turn around,” says Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis. Analysts also expect Vodafone to have to cut its dividend, which may prompt anguish among investors.