Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The Times

2 September 2016

Tom Harrington was quoted in an article on the BBC, ITV and other traditional broadcasters who will struggle to attract A-list stars if Netflix and the major streaming giants continue to outspend them on shows. Tom said that the streaming giants are still in their relative infancy and so are splashing out vast sums in a bid to outcompete traditional broadcasters. He added that, as younger viewers turned in increasing numbers to streaming services, terrestrial channels may start to target an older audience with their programming, catering to the ageing demographic of those who prefer traditional scheduled TV.
Further, he said that “what’s happening right now is that it is early days for streaming services and they are rushing to fill their arsenal with programming, you will see a lot of the major talent, the proper movie stars, on the streaming channels, as they are rushing to snap people up. If it’s a head-to-head money-wise [for the biggest names] then the traditional broadcasters will lose.” He added, however, that the current levels of spending from Netflix and Amazon on original series were unsustainable in the long term and that the BBC and ITV could still trade on the “cachet” and prestige of appearing in a flagship prime-time series on terrestrial TV. Tom explained that there is “a lot of life left” in traditional TV schedules, but added: “Watching linear TV is going down, mostly among younger age groups, where streaming is going up... So TV shows may be targeted at an even older demographic.”

The UK retail market for digital movies has shown steady growth, but has not offset the decline in physical sales. While iTunes remains the UK market leader, Sky is clearly driving the growth with its Buy & Keep offering, backed up with the reassurance of physical product.

However, a move away from the collector mentality alongside the growth of a subscription mentality will affect long term prospects. This is not helped by the consumer proposition for digital retail, which remains disjointed, lacks inter-device operability and a clear consumer benefit.

Without co-ordinated efforts and investment from the studios, content owners and retailers to resolve these issues, we believe the opportunity for digital video retail in the UK is limited. Even with that, the EST market may never be as profitable as the DVD home video market.

Whether the US has reached “Peak TV” —the apogeic volume of original scripted series—is debatable, but the mass of content being produced is unparalleled


As television continues its transition from a disposable medium to a permanent one, and an increasing number of outlets are creating original, scripted programming to keep up or differentiate, does this American explosion have ramifications for the UK consumer or broadcaster?


Simply put, the UK’s more concentrated television landscape limits exposure. And, counter-intuitively, an unsustainable focus on scripted drama could play into the hands of the traditional broadcasters, whose future strength may lie in the diversity of their offering

UK residential communications market revenue growth was broadly unchanged at 5% in Q2, despite volume growth continuing to slow across all products, with pricing and fibre adoption helping to boost ARPU

The combination of weakening market growth and an accelerating Virgin Media (on the back of its Project Lightning network extension) is putting pressure on the other operators, all of which were weak in subscriber terms

These factors bode for a competitive Q3 with the major operators offering very aggressive promotions in the battle for subscribers at the start of the football season. Underlying pricing though looks firm with price rises already implemented, scheduled or expected in Q4

Financial Times

18 August 2016

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article which confirms Telegraph Media Group is not for sale rebuffing expressions of interest from potential buyers in the past six months. “The Telegraph is better placed than most. It has a large subscriber base and circulation seems reasonably robust. Newspapers, even great and profitable newspapers, are not quite the prized assets they once were, but the Telegraph is a powerful voice in the British political and cultural landscape.”

Virgin Media had its strongest June quarter since 2008 with 43k broadband net adds (31% of market net adds), of which Project Lightning contributed less than half. Current momentum remains largely dual play with continuing, though stable, net losses in the TV base

Content investments, and an upgraded UI and STB will be at the centre of TV promotions as refreshed triple play bundles are launched towards the end of the year in a bid to reinvigorate premium pay TV competition. In a saturated premium pay TV market, base stabilisation should be the near term target

Pressure on revenue growth from price increase mechanics, discounting, one-offs and other factors are set to ease from next quarter, in tandem with increased Project Lightning contributions. As we enter the football season, attention turns to wholesale content costs following a record breaking rights auction last year

Financial Times

12 August 2016

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on the increase in sales for magazines dealing with current affairs which goes against the trend of decline in print circulation

Cord-cutting has become a major headache for US pay-TV operators in the last three years, while cable network channels face further erosion due to cord-shaving and we now see a rapidly growing population of cord-nevering households that have never taken a pay-TV subscription  

Should we expect it to be only a matter of time for the UK to follow the US? The short answer is no, due to major differences in the pay-TV market infrastructures of the two countries, which leave the UK much less exposed

However, downward pressures from the online space do exist in both countries, while the big cord-cutting-shaving-nevering threat we now see in the UK has most of all to do with the chill Brexit winds on the economy

To diversify revenue in a saturated US mobile market, telecoms giant Verizon Communications followed an earlier merger with AOL by acquiring Yahoo for $4.8 billion

The combined online ad platforms are likely to become the most viable contender for third place in the US, after Google and Facebook

Verizon’s mobile subscriber data could narrow the market leaders’ targeting and measurement advantage, but regulation and customer reception pose risks