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Outlining the findings of a specially commissioned report for the PPA by Enders Analysis, Douglas McCabe, Enders’ CEO, presented delegates with a compelling and detailed narrative highlighting the erosion of the website’s centrality, and the multiple challenges media companies face as user choice has grown, and consumer behaviour changes.
In the report, Enders posed the question, ‘Is the website dying?’.
According to a May report by Enders and the Professional Publishers Association, media groups were “losing visibility and value as their content is used but not rewarded”, with about half reporting a search traffic decline over the past year.
Al Overviews were cannibalising website visits, Enders said, with four in five consumers relying on “zero-click search results” in at least 40 per cent of their searches.
Excess capacity and financial pressures have led incumbents to offer MVNOs generous wholesale deals, while the advent of online shopping and e-sims has made it easier for customers to find better deals and then make the switch. E-sims also allow MVNOs to move between different networks without the disruption of mailing customers a new card. Add on cost of living pressures and it is not surprising MVNOs, which tend to be cheaper, added 1.5mn UK customers last year, while traditional operators collectively lost 54,000, according to Enders Analysis.
Enders estimates that MVNOs earn about £10 per user per month, and pay £3 in wholesale charges. That leaves a decent potential profit if they can keep customer acquisition and servicing costs down. For many companies, that is a big if. But fintechs already have customer service infrastructure and millions of loyal users.
Streaming giants have been revising their strategies for some time now. For example, they have sought to limit binge-watching (the ability to watch episodes back-to-back) by offering programs on a rolling basis, "to avoid burning through their investments," observes François Godard, an analyst at Enders.
"We're seeing fewer high-end dramas. The market has calmed down," adds François Godard. "For years, we've seen fierce competition, with billions spent to build a subscriber base. But players are increasingly having to face market pressure to become profitable."
According to Enders Analysis, the seven largest players are expected to spend $116.5 billion in 2025, a figure that is virtually unchanged from 2024, "which, in a period of inflation, corresponds to a decrease," notes François Godard. For comparison, it was $131 billion in 2022.
"Fox couldn't stay away from this market, while cable has declined significantly. But it came cautiously: while SVOD players were fighting with billions to win subscribers, Fox was making money," points out François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. Nearly half of Americans watch content via streaming (47.3% according to Nielsen data in July, including YouTube), far ahead of cable (22%) and traditional television ("broadcast") (18%).
"The logic is probably to be more present in packages than in direct subscription sales. And that's where they can be most successful," says François Godard.
Ligue 1+ will now have to prove that it can last. The former M6 boss is aiming for "1 million subscribers" by the end of the season. The coming weeks will be decisive. "It's now or never. After November, we hardly sell any more subscriptions ," says François Godard, an analyst for Enders Analysis. It's also important to retain viewers who haven't signed up for the year. Content broadcast outside of matches will influence the continuation of subscriptions. "The League should be cautious, because by presenting L1+ as a streaming content channel, it risks disappointing ," warns the analyst. However, he believes that the offer remains "better perceived" than DAZN's last year. "There's a patriotic element. The offer seems more legitimate. This could turn fans away from piracy ," he believes.
Spotify's ad-supported tier serves as an important on-ramp for its Premium business — plus the $1.9 billion in ad sales it brought in last year helps toward paying its substantial royalties to music labels and other content creators. However, Premium is the sacred cash cow: Enders Analysis estimates that gross profits for Premium are around 15 to 20 times those of the advertising tier.
"Canal+ could even seek to obtain more than just distribution," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. If the group comes to the aid of the LFP this season, it may be by drawing down the rights for next season, this time exclusively, as it initially wanted to do.
