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Yet viewing figures for last year, highlighted by Enders Analysis, showed that broadcasters’ reach and viewing fell, with average weekly reach on the TV set falling to 77% compared with 90% in 2019. By any standards, this is an alarming rate of decline over such a short period.
“You can see Snap is [now] applying the playbook that has worked so well for the bigger ad platforms [Meta and Google],” said Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at Enders Analysis. “It is still far behind [the bigger platforms] on revenues and [average revenue per user], so there is room for decent growth in SMB advertiser numbers and revenues if it gets the execution right.”
James Barford, head of telecoms, Enders Analysis, put these results into context. He said, “We think that the highlight of CityFibre’s 2024 full year results announced today was confirmation of the company having broken even in EBITDA terms, the first of the altnets to do this. Most look like they will struggle to ever break even in EBITDA terms as stand-alone entities, let alone earn a decent return on investment, highlighting the need for consolidation.
“CityFibre is well placed to lead this in our view, but it may need to resolve its financing situation and fully onboard Sky as a wholesale customer before it can really get going. In the interim, we expect altnets’ roll-outs to continue to slow, with slowing customer net adds following, improving the environment for the broadband incumbent players.”
Researchers at Enders Analysis believe Starlink could address some 3.5% of the UK broadband market by 2027, equivalent to around 1 million subscribers. That’s not disastrous for the incumbents, but nor is it helpful in an industry with heavy investment requirements, and which has historically struggled to earn returns above its cost of capital. It’s also possible that future improvements in satellite technology could narrow the performance gap with fibre. The fact that Musk has a track record of sustaining heavy losses in search of market dominance should also worry rich-world incumbents.
Media analyst Claire Enders said Trump was “cowing all of corporate America . . . and has made no secret of his planned vendettas against any media reporting unfavourably on him and his policies”.
“Payments by ABC News in 2024 and [possible payments by] CBS News now show how frightened corporate America is of the powers of this president and of his agenda,” Enders added.
CityFibre has reported positive EBITDA in 2024, albeit at a slim 4% margin, and still needs further scale—and to successfully onboard its new wholesale customer Sky—to drive decent investment returns.
CityFibre’s organic build rate is dropping sharply as it (sensibly) looks set to rely on consolidation to achieve the required scale, with its organic build focused on Project Gigabit areas.
CityFibre remains well-positioned for consolidation, but this may take some time yet, with the altnet sector set to slow organic progress anyway in the interim.
Recent deals for Ligue 1, the Fifa Club World Cup and Foxtel signal DAZN is focused on global expansion, but this has postponed group breakeven.
Rights have been renewed at lower costs due to tepid competition and wider uncertainty in the broadcasting landscape, which support its improving margins.
Global scale may be a competitive advantage, but DAZN must still prove that global synergies improve local economics and generate a positive margin.
“That is proof there’s room for Canal+ alongside the streamers,” says François Godard, analyst at Enders Analysis. The subscriber base has grown by a third since 2019 to 27mn, with a target to reach anywhere between 50mn and 100mn in the coming years, mainly through further international expansion through M&A.
Disney's phase of consolidation began with profit growth for its streaming business, pushed up by price rises with subscriber numbers reasonably flat. Emboldened by less churn than expected, Disney+ will be more expensive sooner rather than later
Disney+'s UK reach—a proxy for subscriptions—remains firm but under pressure with engagement materially suffering as the flow of new programming has slowed. Library content is D+'s strength, but viewing of it is correlated with new releases
The creation of sports channel bundle Venu ran the risk of accelerating the decline of Disney's linear business. The service's delay and failure to launch may have given time for the company to reappraise its approach to linear