Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The Times

13 June 2017

Julian Aquilina was quoted in an article on illegal streamed services, which has sparked the biggest fall in viewing figures for Premier League football on Sky TV. Julian said that evidence of “cord-cutting”, where consumers cancel cable and satellite TV subscriptions to opt for the use of internet-based streaming services such as Amazon Prime and Netflix, was also an alarming development for Sky and others. He added that “the real impact for Sky is going to be if they keep losing audiences. They are going to be taking a hit on their revenues. Subscriptions are fundamental to their business model. We’ll have to wait and see what the consequences will be long term”.

View Website

Financial Times

12 June 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on the Guardian newspaper to go tabloid, dropping its distinctive Berliner newspaper format and shifting to a smaller print size to slash costs and reduce heavy losses. At the same time as investing heavily in the Berliner format the newspaper group embarked on an open online strategy to grow the Guardian’s brand internationally by allowing readers free access to its website. Douglas said “it always looked like an expensive and ambitious contradiction. For sure [readers] may think that the tabloid is not as attractive but the Guardian needs to communicate to its core audience that it is taking costs seriously”.

View Website

BT Q4 2016/17 results: Mobile strength, pressure elsewhere

9 June 2017

BT had a reasonable quarter in its consumer broadband business given market pressures, and a very strong one at EE with continued growth acceleration. It had a good quarter for fibre adoption as well, helping its wholesale divisions stabilise their revenue, but business/IT was weak as expected

Regulatory pressure remains intense despite the (welcome) Openreach agreement, with price cap regulation proposed or due on a range of products, and a regulatory approach which is far from investment-orientated

Pressures in the business/IT market are likely to continue, and pressures in the consumer broadband market are likely to intensify, justifying BT’s current cautious approach to guidance and dividends

Access report

US music publishing royalties for 2018-22

8 June 2017

The “fair return” to US music publishers and songwriters for rights used by interactive streaming services will be decided in 2017 by the Copyright Royalty Board (CRB)

Rights owners want to switch to a fixed per-stream or per-user rate on all tiers, arguing music has an inherent value. Apple is asking for a much lower per-stream rate

Amazon, Google, Spotify and Pandora warn of disruption to free and ad-supported tiers if the revenue-share tariff is not rolled over, and the CRB could side with them

Access report

UK General Election online - news and advertising

7 June 2017

In contrast to print coverage, most shared news and opinion content on social media was decidedly pro-Labour this election season, with fake news relatively non-existent compared to the US election in November

Facebook’s role in news distribution has steadily grown and now rivals Google’s, but only a half of the UK’s  electorate are active users – for the platform to become decisive in political news would require much stronger turnout among young voters

Facebook was the chief digital ad platform for both main parties, with Conservatives targeting Labour seats, Labour defending them and both adopting a negative tone

Access report

Sky is favourite in twin (and odd) Italian football auctions

6 June 2017

Domestic championship and Champions League rights for 2018-21 are auctioned almost simultaneously. The main uncertainties are the extent to which Sky will increase its exclusive coverage of Serie A, and whether it will try to win the Champions League auction to take advantage of rival Mediaset Premium’s announced retreat

Mediaset has complained to regulators over the Serie A terms, possibly seeking a repeat of the 2014 scenario when it provoked the termination of the auction and ultimately gained a private deal – an outcome still facing legal challenges. Any possible resolution of Mediaset’s dispute with Vivendi should not impact the auctions

We doubt that telecom or digital operators will be tempted by the €200m minimum price for the two internet-only packages with patchy regional coverage – a bad idea mandated by the regulator. However irrational behaviour at auctions should never be ruled out

Access report

Financial Times

6 June 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on the appointment of the new chief executive of Channel 4. The publicly owned group announced on Monday that Alex Mahon, first female chief executive, would take over from David Abraham who is standing down after seven years in charge. Ms Mahon from the special effects business Foundry will lead the broadcaster at a time of deep uncertainty over its future location and a slump in the television advertising market. She will have to navigate a difficult advertising market with analysts predicting a possible fall of 5-6 per cent in 2017. Claire said “it’s a daunting challenge because we are going to have a really tough year. Although Channel 4 has significant reserves it doesn’t have any significant other source of revenue and if the ad slump prolongs itself to next year, that is going to be quite a demanding time.”

View Website

Nintendo Switching to a new console era

5 June 2017

The successful launch of the Nintendo Switch creates a new console model, and demonstrates the staying power and long term value of great franchises

Microsoft reveals the specification for Scorpio, but it won’t be enough to catch up to Sony. New franchises, and probably new leadership, will be the key to stopping Xbox sliding into irrelevance outside North America

Sony’s PlayStation 4 now exceeds 60m units worldwide, allowing Sony more freedom to publish a wide range of challenging creative console games, while VR games continue to gain momentum

Access report

ITV et al. facing the NAR squeeze

31 May 2017

ITV’s latest trading Q1 trading update has sent a clear warning signal to the commercial TV industry as it gave guidance of 8-9% year-on-year decline in TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) in H1 2017

A substantial portion of the projected decline may be attributed to economic issues and relatively tough Q1 comparatives as per ITV guidance; however, there are clear signs of growing intrusion by online video advertising on traditional broadcast TV NAR

A review of trends points to major biases that swing the market towards the online space. It is time for all to reconsider both the impact of CRR (Contract Rights Renewal) in restraining TV NAR and the factors – by no means all sound – pushing up online video spend

Access report