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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Bottom of the funnel is top of the pile: Online advertising lessons from Alphabet

28 July 2022

YouTube’s tepid quarter signals a two-track online ad economy with advertisers protecting search spend as an essential cost of sales while cutting online display.

YouTube faces a challenge to strengthen its brand and direct response ad products while sacrificing some income to Shorts, its answer to competition from TikTok, which we estimate added three times as much ad revenue as YouTube in H1.

Beyond the short term, brands need to generate new demand, and that cannot be accomplished at the bottom of the funnel.

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Alice Enders was quoted in INews on "Rupert Murdoch has decided Donald Trump is finished, and his son is wielding the knife"

27 July 2022

Alice said "The hearings into the January 6th events are top of the media agenda in the US, and Trump is not emerging as unscathed by his behaviour. The soft base of Trump is peeling away. DeSantis is young and charismatic and likely to be a stronger contender for the next Presidential election, especially against Biden."

"Murdoch likes to back winners rather than losers, and Trump lost the last election - that's plain as day - and Ron DeSantis is more likely to win on 5 November 2024 and deliver the Republican agenda of low taxes."

She added "Fox had a brilliant time in terms of ad revenues when Trump was all in to the Murdochs, always dialling in and on tap to provide commentary. Now that he is not, because of the 'treachery' of Fox News over the election, they would certainly like to curry favour with DeSantis to replace Trump's pulling power."

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Vodafone: Striving to grow, striving to deal

27 July 2022

Growth is crucial for Vodafone’s leverage but remains elusive and the company’s ambition to grow European revenues this year looks challenging

Exacerbating revenue pressure in Germany and the loss of the VMO2 MVNO will weigh heavily in H2 and cost inflation will eat into any margin gains

Deal-making is not yet materialising with considerable question marks remaining over regulatory approval for mobile consolidation, a necessarily more open mind on action on Vantage, and plans to shift fibre investment off balance sheet. Vodafone promises more concrete developments with H1 results

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Francois Godard was quoted in the Financial Times on "Sports rights to sports betting: what next for Blavatnik-backed DAZN?"

22 July 2022

Francois said “If Apple comes to Europe and starts buying rights, like Amazon, at some point prices may start rising again. I don’t know if there will be room left for someone like DAZN."

Francois is “sceptical” about DAZN’s ambitions in these areas. “Betting has far less barriers to entry than sports video,” he said. “Once you have the broadcast rights, nobody can launch against you. In betting, it’s much more fluid, it’s much more competitive and almost anybody can create something.”

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The Guardian: Sustainability delivered

21 July 2022

The Guardian has posted a stellar set of results: its highest annual revenues since the 2008 financial crash, and a £22.7 million upswing in operating cashflows, putting it into positive territory for the first time in decades

Looking ahead to 2022/23, the Guardian (alongside every other news publisher) faces the twin headwinds of the cost-of-living crisis and news fatigue

There are levers for the Guardian to pull to maintain growth, increase monetisation, and minimise churn

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Francois Godard was quoted in Variety on "Canal+ Group in Advanced Talks to Acquire Orange’s Film, Television, Pay-TV Divisions (EXCLUSIVE)"

21 July 2022

Canal+, however, would have enough leverage to strike an exclusive distribution deal with this new HBO-Discovery+ service to aggregate it as part of its cable bundle in a pact similar to the one it signed with Disney + in France, according to Francois Godard at Enders Analysis. Godard also predicts such deal would have strong chances of being approved by the anti-trust board.

In 2011, the anti-trust board blocked Canal+ Group’s attempt to merge with OCS and launch a premium pay TV channel, but Godard says “the world has changed and Canal+ is no longer dominating the French market.” “Watchdog authorities are aware that Canal+ must consolidate to face off global streamers like Disney which are spend €30 billion in content this year,” Godard continued. “Canal+’s strategy today is to increase their scale, they’re on a world market and they need to ramp up their worth and subscriber base to finance bigger productions,” the analyst continued.

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Netflix: Losing subs but growing revenues

20 July 2022

Netflix lost net subscribers for the second quarter in a row (-970k) but the results were marked as "less bad", being better than what was forecast. More mature streaming regions—UCAN (-1.3 million) and EMEA (-770k)—were propped up by APAC (+1.1 million)

Netflix's advertising tier is rapidly taking shape with Microsoft announced as a global tech partner, but its impact on the UK video ad market—at least in the short term—will be small

In the US, the most mature Netflix market, churn appears to be growing as the subscriber base struggles to grow. However, price rises are more than offsetting this growing churn, a window into the future of other territories

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