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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

CPW’s European volume and revenue growth dropped in the December quarter, but this was largely due to the higher mix of prepay in the Christmas period, with underlying trends (strong contract, weak prepay) unchanged

US volume growth surged to 34% as the company continued to roll out standalone stores in malls and shopping centres, and there appears to be plenty of growth to come

Looking forward, the UK business is likely to suffer from the longer handset contracts that have been rolled out by the UK mobile operators over the last two years, but continued strength in the US is likely to more than make up for this

HMV’s poor trading update for the crucial Christmas period was due to the decline in demand for CDs, DVDs and games, and competition from supermarkets and e-tailers, compounded by bad weather

Waterstone’s outperformed HMV as the challenges of high street book retailing are not (yet) as acute as for CDs and DVDs – we consider it possible that HMV will divest the chain

HMV’s strategy for the store network is a key challenge for 2011 – in addition to planned store closures, further closures may be needed to maintain current profitability

By 2015 we expect internet-centric smartphone penetration in the UK to reach 75% and mobile internet use to reach 28% of total time spent online. The dynamics and ecosystems of the mobile internet, and in particular the app model, will become a significant part of overall digital strategies

First seen as an interim reaction to slow networks and small screens, mobile apps have become a major new route to market for publishers and ecommerce providers, and are likely to spread to new areas

However, Apple is likely to continue to lose share in the internet-centric smartphone market, and publishers will face a far messier, fragmented world of competing platforms, app stores and payment systems

Smartphones are rapidly moving to become a majority of UK mobile handset sales, driving a surge in mobile internet use. Even if usage per user (currently growing) flattens out, we forecast mobile internet usage to grow from 1.8bn hours in 2010 to 7bn in 2015: 28% of total online time

This should drive the long promised growth in mobile advertising and we project UK spend, including search and display, will rise to £420 million by 2015, equivalent to 10% of PC internet search/display advertising

We expect the majority of this usage to be incremental to PC-based consumption, as users find new things to do and buy on the mobile web, driving the overall online advertising market to further growth

Iliad’s Freebox V6

22 December 2010

France’s Iliad will rekindle broadband subscriber recruitment with its Freebox V6 (router and TV set-top box), and extension of the triple play to include unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls

Freebox V6 is positioned as an innovative premium quasi-PC device including a 250GB PVR, a Blu-ray player, a game console and a web browser, re-establishing Iliad’s technology leadership

Iliad expects that V6 subscribers will be less profitable in the short term than in the medium term, but cumulative free cash flow guidance for the ADSL business remains unchanged for 2010-12

The Financial Times

20 December 2010

Following Ofcom's decision in the public interest to investigate the adverse effects of a loss of broadcasting plurality, and issue an invitation to comment on News Corporation's bid for British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB warns watchdog over News Corp bid), the FT reported that the broadcaster's independent directors have warned the regulator of a “perverse outcome” if it found that a deal would seriously curtail diversity for UK viewers. Chris Goodall was asked for his view.

The Financial Times

20 December 2010

Following the announcement by the BBC that it intends to build on the popularity of the iPlayer by launching an international version of the video-on-demand service as an application for the Apple iPad (BBC picks iPad for iPlayer global launch), the FT asked Benedict Evans for his view.

The Financial Times

17 December 2010

Heralding the simultaneous launch by Rupert Murdoch and Sir Richard Branson of iPad-only publications (Why the iPad should rival the web), the FT suggested that both announcements simply reflected a "bigger debate about whether companies are balkanising the web to gain economic leverage".

The FT argued that a tablet "restores the advantage of depth over breadth" and in making use of such technology "an edited in-depth publication has a better chance of competing with the atomised, open-source information flow of the open web". However, the article conceded that many people are happy to live in the world of free, distributed information and will prefer it. Benedict Evans was asked for his view. He said: “If you think that the day of the editor deciding what you read today is dead then these apps will fall apart.”

The Financial Times

17 December 2010

Following Virgin Media's announcement that it will provide its customers with a new set-top box which would combine the internet and television on one screen (Virgin boss boasts better TV than Sky), the FT observed that "rivals including BSkyB and YouView, are rushing out similar services, but Virgin said its offering was the first of scale".

Having warned that questions would be asked over the reliability of the technology, as "Virgin has had problems over customer service" the FT asked Toby Syfret for his view. He said: “This is a chance to produce something that is user friendly and encourages video usage... But seeing is believing, so we will have to wait to see if it works.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3975a6f8-fd3c-11df-b83c-00144feab49a.html#axz…