Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Vodafone’s Q3 results were slightly disappointing following the green shoots of Q2, with growth in Germany slipping back again, albeit some of it already flagged.

It is difficult to imagine the full year results event being a positive catalyst with the likelihood of a dividend cut, a recognition of the hard-currency reality of the financials, and a still challenging outlook for FY 2024/25.

Deal-making is a positive counter with a highly accretive deal still in the offing in Italy, and the prospect of execution in Spain and the UK. Various inorganic deals with 1&1, Microsoft and Accenture will also be helpful, although none of them as valuable as an improvement in the core operations.

BT’s Q3 was robust in financial terms, delivering revenue growth of 3% and EBITDA growth of 1%, both in-line/ahead of analyst expectations.

Strong broadband ARPU and accelerating FTTP performance at Openreach were the highlights, a weakening BT Business and continued Openreach broadband losses were the main concerns.

This year’s guidance should be easily met, next year’s will be trickier given lower price rises due in April, but the long-term plan of a massive cashflow turnaround when the FTTP build ends is still well on-track.

UK law permits PPL to collect royalties on the public performance of recordings, but performers on US recordings are not eligible for distribution, except for digital transmissions, under the principle of material reciprocity. The Government may reverse this principle, with US labels (and their UK subsidiaries) likely to lose out.

The EU Member States are also grappling with the issue. Rethinking reciprocity is more disruptive there than it would be in the UK, because of how the 'artist's share' of royalties has been treated.

Progress has stalled in the US on legislation to provide for sound recording radio broadcast rights, which would be of huge benefit to performers and labels, but is ferociously opposed by broadcasters.

“She’s all signed up to the strategy,” says Karen Egan, head of mobile at Enders Analysis. “Nonetheless, you will expect her to want to make her own mark somewhat, and I suppose there’s probably a bit of nervousness about what that might look like.”

“I’m not a huge fan of all this tinkering and restructuring in telecoms companies, just to make your mark as a new chief executive,” says Egan. “BT is not a place for revolutions.”

On valuation grounds the proposed transaction favoured Iliad. The JV, with an enterprise value of €14.9bn, would have raised €7bn in new debt to pay €6.6bn to Vodafone and €0.4bn to Iliad. That would have left Vodafone with cash and securities worth €10.5bn, or eight times its Italian unit’s forecast ebitda after lease payments. Iliad, admittedly faster growing but as yet barely profitable, would have been valued at 17 times ebitda, estimates Karen Egan at Enders Analysis.