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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Douglas McCabe was quoted in Press Gazette on "MacKenzie, Murdoch and the hunt for tabloid gold in the digital era"
11 November 2022Douglas said “The Sun’s done an amazing job relatively recently building its US audience. In a digital world, it nuts for [UK news websites] not to try for a global audience. And in fact they’ve been relatively slow at doing that.
“Mail Online’s built up a big US audience, The Sun is now building up a big US audience. But it’s sort of surprising that the English-language British news media are not going for broke on global – that’s the way to really make your brand fly.”
He added “What publishers have done is taken a print model and effectively transitioned that into an online environment without really knowing if that works,” he said. “And if you were starting from scratch, you probably wouldn’t have a newsroom with 500 journalists in it creating enough content to fill a newspaper every day.
Francois Godard was quoted in The Hollywood Reporter on "Price Hikes at Streaming Giants May Fuel Churn Rates as Consumers Opt Out"
10 November 2022“Apple TV+ is the smallest and [least] watched with a smaller program library, thus the most exposed to churn,” Enders Analysis analyst François Godard notes. In contrast, the launch of Netflix’s new ad-supported subscription tier is poised to be a “handy option for consumers seeking cuts in spending,” he says, especially for users who otherwise might have canceled their Netflix subscription because of its higher price point (the standard subscription jumped from $13.99 to $15.49 a month in January).
Jamie MacEwan was quoted in The Telegraph on "Meet Mastodon, the Twitter ‘killer’ Elon Musk is keeping an eye on"
10 November 2022Jamie said the site has a long way to go before corporate users will look twice at it.
“Mastodon has all the disadvantages of decentralisation. It's unintuitive, it's got patchy moderation to put it kindly, and your home server could be switched off at any point. It's a nightmare for the average user.”
He added “So long as Twitter is functioning, Mastodon will be there as a niche fallback option. Twitter would have to implode for that to change.”
VMO2: Saved by synergies
10 November 2022Cost-of-living pressures and tougher fixed competition drove VMO2’s revenues (just) back into negative territory this quarter.
Synergy benefits, however, delivered impressive EBITDA growth (+5%) with more to come as the Virgin Mobile MVNO shifts on-network next quarter.
We struggle to foresee convergence becoming the company’s next growth driver as trailed by the CEO, but the mobile outlook is fairly robust and there are steps that can be taken to shore up the pressurised fixed business.
ITV: Ad market deteriorates, inflation rising
9 November 2022ITV’s total advertising revenue (TAR) across the first nine months was down 2% year-on-year, £25 million less than the company had expected at the end of July. This was still up on pre-COVID levels. With a strong Q4, TAR is expected to be down 1.5% across the year, while high inflation of costs and greater reliance on Studios will ultimately challenge margins
ITVX will be fully launched on the—slightly delayed—date of 8 December 2022. We are confident that it will be a step change for ITV's online engagement, however we believe that ITV may be understating its potential cannibalisation of linear
ITV Studios appears to be beating the market, and there may never be a more opportune time for its mooted partial sale: across the industry inflation will make margins difficult to grow while overall content demand is plateauing at best
BT: Solid results, but concerns at Openreach
9 November 2022BT maintained (proforma) revenue growth at 1% in Q2, EBITDA growth was a healthy 5%, and retail net adds were solid across broadband and mobile, with evidence of an economic crisis hard to discern.
Investors have concerns around Openreach, with a market-driven slowdown in wholesale broadband, extra capex this year, and a further ‘special offer’ price cut being negotiated for next year combining to create understandable anxiety.
We think that Openreach continues to have a healthy outlook overall, with there being greater risks in consumer and business retail revenue in toughening economic conditions, albeit this is a storm that BT has weathered very well so far.
Francois said "Sky Deutschland is subscale compared to its UK sister. Maybe a German buyer could merge it with something else and get to scale.”