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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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Even this option wouldn't be a perfect solution for the LFP, given the degradation of the "L1 product" since the Mediapro incident. Since then, viewership has declined and rights prices have plummeted. "L1 needs to rebuild its brand, and to do that, the option of broadcasting on free TV shouldn't be ruled out," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. "At the current price, I'm convinced that TF1 could buy one match per week, or even ten matches per season. And the rest would remain on a paid service. This would be the real way to get out of the rut and rebuild the bond with the French people."

 

In the year following its IPO, Reddit has defied our expectations, reporting five straight quarters of positive adjusted operating income and strong growth.

Profitability stems from disciplined cost management alongside exceptional user growth, with a focus on advertising performance and limited distractions.

The platform's human-generated conversations are proving valuable in the AI era, but AI strength could become a vulnerability if synthetic content overwhelms authentic discussion.

UEFA and Relevent, a newly appointed media rights sales partner, are already surveying the rights market for the next cycle starting in 2027.

With minimal competitive tension in major European markets, incumbent broadcasters are unlikely to increase their bids.

Relevent will, however, try to leverage increased US appetite for soccer to lure a streamer into a global deal.

 

2024 was the first year in history in which the network operators lost contract subscribers. MVNOs added 1.7m.

In-contract price increases are dominating revenue trends, with a somewhat flatlining outlook on an underlying basis but boosted by accounting technicalities.

We expect the Vodafone3 merger to close on 1 of May which has implications for buyout timing and will prompt higher capex, some early network upsides, and big strategic decisions for both Vodafone3 and BT/EE.

 

Looking to 2030, we forecast that broadcaster viewing will continue to decline, driven by a drop in live viewing. Non-live is increasing but will be unable to make up for the total broadcaster shortfall.

Change is demarcated by age: while under-35s will watch more YouTube on the TV, with SVOD steady, the inverse will occur for over-35s.

The heavy-watching over-65s remain mostly insulated from change for now, however, those aged 35-54 are currently undergoing the biggest behavioural shift: beyond 2030 they will eventually carry their modern habits into their time-rich retirements.

But few analysts believe the scale of the cost increases was predicted. “I’m not sure anyone would have put together a model with a 46 per cent tariff, so this is going to be the key question as in the US market they may well have to move the price,” says Gareth Sutcliffe at Enders Analysis.

The industry, however, welcomes the relatively high pricing of the games — hoping that it sets a new standard. “Nintendo can clearly move its pricing on its top franchises,” says Sutcliffe. “That is clearly the new premium price point for all AAA games and they are providing premium games.”

Gaming revenue has been broadly flat for several years, according to Sutcliffe of Enders Analysis, with software sales compensating for declining demand for ageing Xbox and PlayStation consoles.

But as Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis pointed out, Substack only makes money by taking a 10% cut of its writers’ subscriptions, so it has no financial stake in a free newsletter whose sole purpose is to reach as wide an audience as possible.

“That eliminates some risk, but it’s no cast-iron guarantee – anyone could start a far-right newsletter, for example, and then it’s up to Substack to determine if it should be taken down,” MacEwan said. “Last year it faced a user backlash for refusing to demonetize newsletters that were publishing extreme right-wing views. These questions aren’t just going to go away, especially if Substack rolls out new personalization or discoverability features.”