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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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Whether to allow a Vodafone/H3G merger is essentially a trade-off between range of consumer choice and costs of network duplication. With the need for the former diminishing and the latter increasing, the case for approval is strengthened.

H3G is in a negative spiral of small scale, low investment, and low returns. A merger would allow it to form part of a more credible competitor with a transformed returns profile—without rising prices or reduced industry investment levels.

The CMA’s aversion to mergers has been very stringent of late—an approach that risks deterring investment and compromising competitiveness. Consolidation in UK mobile is unlikely to happen without a change of mindset.

“Salto remains marginal in their economic model”, tempers François Godard, analyst at the London firm Enders. "The future of TF1 will probably be closer to YouTube than to Netflix", he continues, because the historical channels must above all draw a future in the offers financed by advertising. If they want to go back on the offensive, "I don't see how they can do it each on their own, there should be more collaboration between them or possibly with the public audiovisual sector", he believes.

“Bertelsmann's strategy presupposed consolidation at national level in Europe. However, there is none and now M6 is not even for sale”, observes François Godard, however, analyst at the London firm Enders. “Thomas Rabe must react and present an alternative,” he concludes. The long-distance runner does not want to admit defeat. Market consolidation is "a matter of one or two years maximum", he assured the "Financial Times" on Monday. Besides, he has no plan B. This is perhaps the biggest risk for him.

For the media and entertainment industry the dawn of the metaverse, and the word soup of acronyms that accompanies it, is the latest high-profile technology wave that threatens to simultaneously upend established distribution models and reinvent both the experience and the relationship with the audience.

Music is the media sector (outside gaming) that has moved fastest to experiment with metaverse applications, so far mainly on gaming platforms like Fortnite and Roblox, which provide a ready game-centric audience but offer little lasting innovation.

Music's metaverse potential beyond gaming is huge, led by artists who want a more dynamic online presence, though we anticipate a long trajectory towards mainstream applications as questions remain around formats, design, platforms, and monetisation.