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Tom said “Being the fifth, sixth or seventh-biggest content creator is not enough. People will take only a few services — there has to be consolidation.”
Francois said “The Warner-Discovery and TF1-M6 merger plans have dramatically pushed consolidation up European commercial television’s agenda. Wave after wave of consolidation in the entertainment industry has progressively dwarfed European operators. In 2010, the revenues of the region’s largest broadcaster, the RTL Group, already amounted to just 20 percent of Disney’s, and by 2020 this ratio had halved. The last decade has seen the emergence of global vertically integrated content producers and distributors, such as Netflix and Amazon, and the spread of this model to Hollywood-based studios, while the likes of Facebook and Google have grown to become direct competitors to TV channels that used to be seen as ‘licenses to print money."
Claire said “Decriminalizing the license fee could cost the BBC 10 percent of its budget, which would force deep cuts in programming and staff. But under the current timetable for reviewing public-service broadcasting in Britain, the fee is safe until 2027"
She added "They’re going to make sure this never happens again. They’re going to make sure the Diana interview is wiped from the annals of history, that they can’t make money from it again.”
Vodafone’s additional investment to boost a growth story that isn’t yet delivering failed to impress investors who value cashflow much more than promises for tomorrow, particularly given Vodafone’s track record with restructuring plans and product development.
It’s a surprising time to be splashing the cash with leverage still finely balanced and riding on Vodafone delivering a 10ppt turnaround in EBITDA growth next year vs last. Commercial activity looks set to continue to be dominated by EBITDA promises.
Selling a stake in Vantage Towers (temporarily) solved a leverage problem, but is creating a control problem, with the uncertain level of its future capex adding to investor concerns.
The Warner-Discovery and TF1-M6 merger plans have dramatically pushed consolidation up European commercial television’s agenda.
The first path—heralded by Bertelsmann’s RTL Group—would aim at creating
national broadcasters with the content scale to operate compelling online platforms.
An alternative path revives the never achieved idea of pan-European synergies,
leveraging increased international appetite for non-English language content—but
its champion, Italy’s Mediaset, lacks capacity to deliver.
The highlight of what seems set to be O2’s final results as a standalone company is OIBDA growth of almost 8% in spite of a drag from weaker net adds.
It has also been a good quarter for O2 strategically with preliminary merger approval and contiguous 5G spectrum although that may be matched by its peers in subsequent deals given H3G’s openness to negotiation.
The annualisation of COVID impacts as well as an improving mobility picture will provide a significant boost to trends, although the roaming drag seems unlikely to reverse any time soon and O2’s relative growth will suffer from lower in-contract price rises than peers this spring.
Tom said "When that deal comes up it could certainly go behind a paywall - Amazon or elsewhere - as it did with Sky for a bit. Major difference with having it on a big streaming service, however, is that it would cannibalise renting or buying the film online."
He added "At the moment ITV's rights are very limited when it comes to catch-up or live streaming of James Bond, so renting or buying is protected. Amazon might see their value to Prime trumps the foregone revenues there though."
Sanchit said 'As people spend more time consuming online content, having something that is fresh or adds value is more important than ever for streaming platforms."
Amazon understands the quality and depth of content is a really important differentiator. "With a name like MGM, it would add a very well-established library that customers can't get elsewhere."
BT ended a very challenging 2020/21 financial year with its worst quarter yet for EBITDA growth, as the third national lockdown impacted mobile, offices, pubs/clubs and installation revenue streams
There are many turnaround drivers ahead though, including price rises, backbook effects annualising, lockdown effect reversals, and full fibre benefits, but returning to revenue growth by the end of the year still looks challenging
The acceleration and expansion of fibre build is very positive in our view, but BT has given no guidance on the future benefits aside from capex returning to normal levels, which is doing it no favours with investors