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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Joseph said “[Tech companies] weren’t as far ahead as you might think with remote working before. They had that image, but expectations at these companies, particularly in head office, were the same as in other sectors – to be present in the office. The pandemic changed that, and unquestionably companies such as Facebook have embraced the change.”

He added “All the tech companies have gone on a back and forth journey regarding remote working. They are settling on the idea that it has worked better than hoped, but that fully distributed teams on a permanent basis isn’t an optimum situation."

Italy's Serie A could award its 2021-24 broadcasting rights tomorrow to either Sky or DAZN (backed by TIM) for a fee significantly down on the previous cycle.

Either outcome looks good for Sky: increasing coverage at a lower fee, or pivoting to aggregation as DAZN will need to access Sky’s subscriber base.

DAZN and its ally TIM are also shifting strategy, but with weak rationale. The Italian auction reinforces our expectation of a drop in Premier League fees in the imminent British tender.

In a challenging media marketplace, quality online news services generated hundreds of thousands of new buyers in 2020, perhaps inching ahead of print in terms of UK household propensity-to-pay.

But reader-first models are not only about subscriptions. The UK’s first national print title to go online-only, The Independent, has achieved operating profits since reconfiguring its cost base in 2016.

The Independent defies many investor assumptions about news. Solutions for smaller businesses may diverge more from industry giants than is commonly expressed, and without distribution change, editorial, product and commercial transformation is slower.

Despite linear TV viewing benefiting from recent lockdowns, across 2020 it still declined among younger audiences. Online video habits have solidified, most notably for adults in their 30s and 40s

As a result, traditional broadcasters are more vulnerable now than ever before. Long term, we forecast their audiences to fall further than previously expected—down to 61% of all video viewing in 2027 from 72% today—as streaming platforms make ever-deeper inroads

Given linear TV’s reliance on older cohorts, plus an ageing UK population, we predict that two-thirds of traditional broadcasters’ viewing in 2027 will come from over-55s, with less than 13% from under-35s

Tom said “The biggest problem Disney has is also its biggest advantage — everyone knows its name and probably has a warm, fuzzy childhood feeling about it. But what are they going to do with American Horror Story? Is Twisty the Clown going to sully your memories of going to Disney World and meeting Mickey Mouse?”

He added “While streaming services like Spotify destroyed the album, streaming services like Netflix just reinforce the idea that what a TV show is, how long it is and the rhythm of it, have been optimised over 60 years. A few years ago Netflix was talking about using data to make TV shows. Now that’s completely turned around. They’ve hired people who know how to make television — the distribution method changed, but the people making it are the same people who always have.”

BT: A bumpy road

15 February 2021

BT’s December quarter results were mixed, with revenue growth improving but EBITDA growth worsening, and next quarter will be hit by the effects of lockdown 3 on mobile, with B2B likely to be hit by business failures following the end of furlough.

BT has maintained/nudged up its financial guidance regardless, and there are plenty of positive longer-term signs, with subscriber growth strong in the quarter, pricing pressure easing, and full fibre roll-out and adoption progressing nicely.

Overall, we expect the road to continue to be bumpy, but a recovery by 2022/23 still seems very plausible, ultimately driven by the wholesale and retail benefits of full fibre, and perhaps helped if it can get ‘Digital’ right, a particular challenge historically for BT.