Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Francois Godard was quoted in The Times on Mediaset plans to merge Spanish and Italian companies into Dutchco Media For Europe. Francois said “The whole concept is challenging to say the least. No-one has ever created meaningful synergies by acquiring interests in free-to-air television across Europe,” TV and film rights and advertising are bought and sold on a country-by-country basis, he added.
Analysis of peak time TV programming on the main five PSB channels from 2002 to today shows a decline in the number of UK dramas broadcast—predominantly due to a contraction by ITV—though this has steadied since 2010
The resolve of the PSBs to maintain the number of dramas broadcast, despite rising costs, will mean an inevitable increase in the number of repeats and cheaper programming
A number of other observations are eye-catching: a greater turnover of drama series, entertainment formats failing at a higher rate and celebrity being treated as a panacea
James Barford was quoted in the FT on government proposals to increase height of mobile phone masts. James said “The industry has been frustrated with the government demanding much better internet coverage, while at the same time saying ‘you can’t build [masts] here’....“A lot of rural areas get only two or three operators, but not all of them. The idea is that mast sharing will improve the offer.” James also said "Overall rollout of 5G will take another two to four years but that will not necessarily cover rural areas, some of which do not even have good 4G coverage seven years after it was first launched”
We have revised our 2019 TV advertising forecasts down to -5% year-on-year due to the prospect of Brexit on 31 October, without an agreement and transition period of continued free trade to the next trading regime with the EU, thus implying the interruption of the free flow of goods across the UK's borders with Ireland, France and the EU generally.
With the UK economy already grinding to a standstill, forward guidance for Q3 2019 indicates further decline, and the prospect of a hard Brexit will make advertisers even less willing to commit TV budgets in November and December. As a result we forecast TV advertising to be down 6.7% in H2 2019.
Understandably, no official and reliable economic forecast for no-deal Brexit is in the public domain, so we are not yet in a position to forecast TV advertising revenue for next year.
In China, Alibaba and Tencent compete for food delivery to expand access to a fast-growing source of mobile user data, using their chat and wallet super apps to funnel customers to their food delivery apps
In the West, the rivalry is direct between the food delivery apps – Just Eat, Uber Eats, and Deliveroo – and the costs of last-mile delivery dissuade challengers
In the UK, Amazon will change the game if it succeeds in its proposed purchase of a minority stake in Deliveroo, which Uber failed to buy last year. Progress on the merger of Amazon and Deliveroo is suspended by the regulator
Virgin Media’s results were quite mixed, with the subscriber base shrinking in a very slow market, but ARPU and revenue returning to growth despite pricing pressure and regulatory drags
The outlook remains challenging, but market pricing does seem to be easing with no repeat of the damaging Openreach price cuts on the horizon
‘Full fibre’ roll-outs will bring further challenges, but opportunities as well, with the accompanying focus on higher speeds likely to be a significant operational upside in the short to medium term
BT’s divisions had contrasting fortunes in Q1 2019/20, with Consumer revenue growth sharply turning negative but Openreach external revenue growth accelerating to 10%, leaving the Group level unchanged at -1% and EBITDA on course to meet guidance.
Consumer was hit by several regulatory and pricing factors mainly affecting mobile, and the short-term outlook remains tough, with a number of legacy pricing issues across fixed and mobile still to be resolved.
Openreach is reaping the benefit of previous price declines annualizing out, allowing it to take full advantage of higher speed demand, and due to its full fibre roll-out this dynamic could persevere for years.
Alice Enders was quoted in the Financial Times on Tencent plans to buy 10% of Universal Music from Vivendi. Alice said, "the stake sale would be an “equilibrium move” for Tencent, given it would have struggled to justify a 50 per cent share of Universal at such a lofty valuation". She said Vivendi had missed out on a huge windfall by selling such a small stake. “Selling 50 per cent of UMG at an inflated level would have been a really big score".
Julian Aquilina was quoted in the Financial Times on the rise of online streaming services. Julian said "services like Netflix and Amazon were complementary to the traditional TV viewing habit of many viewers, adding that around half of UK homes still subscribe to pay-TV from companies such as Sky and Virgin Media....But the non-UK services are less regulated than the UK broadcasters — a significant factor behind their success, particularly among younger audiences. ”