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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

European mobile service revenue growth worsened slightly in Q2, dropping to -1.2% after three consecutive quarters at -0.8%. Southern Europe significantly outperformed the North, reversing the regional trend of recent years

EU roaming rate cuts and the increase in SIM-only subscriptions were the two main negative, albeit temporary, factors with the former particularly impacting northern European operators with heavy roaming exposure and the latter more varied in its impact across the EU5

Mobile service revenue growth was thus quite robust given these factors, helped by price firming in a number of markets. Looking forward, while the negative factors are likely to continue in the short-term they will drop out in two years in the case of roaming cuts, and SIM-only, whose impact is mostly profit-neutral to operators, will also reach an equilibrium in due course, and the market's overall resilience is encouraging

The Times

26 September 2016

Alice Enders was quoted in an article discussing the UK's possible post-Brexit trade arrangements with the EU, saying “All of this can be done without any mess or fuss. There can be a transitional period of post-Brexit tariff-free trade between the UK and the EU until a formal free-trade arrangement is finalised — this is the wholehearted wish of EU companies reliant on supply chains involving the UK. “There is much precedent for such an arrangement from the EU side. And this would not involve the UK continuing with unchecked migration from the EU or substantial payments into the EU budget.”

Ms Enders was absolutely not in favour of Brexit: this is dispassionate analysis, not politically motivated wishful thinking.

After the dispute with Vivendi, Mediaset Premium faces mounting losses with no buyer in sight and increasing tension within the controlling shareholder family

Sky has managed to resume growth despite the loss of the Champions League (CL), mostly thanks to strong advertising sales

Next year, both CL and domestic Serie A, will auction the 2018-21 broadcasting rights. Sky will be in a position to substantially increase its range of exclusive football coverage

 

Financial Times

19 September 2016

Toby Syfret was quoted in an article on the war for content in broadcasting. Last week, public service broadcaster Channel 4 bought the rights to screen The Great British Bake Off, the UK’s most popular TV show, for a reported £75m over three years. The deal reflects how competitive the market for watchable programming has become. Toby reckons that Channel 4 should make a modest profit on its rumoured outlay if more than 5m viewers regularly watch the show.

BT Sport has seen a very clear positive impact from its first year airing the Champions League, with viewing up 60% year-on-year to June. Remarkably, its reach is now not too far off Sky Sports, though it still has some way to go in terms of consistent viewership.

Pay-TV audiences for the 2015/16 tournament were in line with previous years – an impressive feat – but free-to-air disappointed. However, BT should not be too concerned – it has established itself as a worthy pay-TV partner.

While BT’s execution has thus beaten reasonable expectations, BT Sport still carries a heavy net financial cost for BT, with debatable benefits. Yet, whatever the benefits may be, more viewers watching more often must surely help.

More than one third of the UK population is over 50 and this cohort is projected to keep growing. They account for substantial wealth, assets and expenditure, and reveal active multimedia engagement, providing real opportunities for brands  Given their outsize impact, we believe the marketing industry underappreciates the diversity of habits among the over 50s. While 50-65s’ habits and consumer behaviour increasingly resemble that of younger cohorts, their spending power is far greater; expectations from products and services are higher and yet the placement, format and tone of marketing feels misaligned  Online is a huge enabler that can help drive, shape and inform how over 50s spend their substantial wealth. But that can only be done effectively with a clearer understanding of behaviour and level of responsiveness to messages across media, from print to TV to online

Apple’s hardware progress at this year’s Special Event was more impressive than the software announcements at WWDC in June, though not at the level seen during the bumper launch of the iPhone 6

Improvements in camera technology and custom chips are preparing the iPhone for more drastic design changes and new location-based service categories in the future

Next year, faster development of both software and hardware is required to defend iPhone margins or user base growth, let alone both

UK mobile service revenue growth dipped down in Q2 to -1.7%, with this being driven by some one-off factors, such as MTR and roaming cuts, and some longer terms trends, such as the continued rise in SIM-only

Profitability nonetheless improved at all of the operators, suggesting strong ongoing cost control, and that some of the revenue weakness is caused by factors that do not impact (or even positively impact) the bottom line

Competitive performances were mixed, with EE’s revenue growth improvement contrasting with dips at the other three operators, driven by EE’s strong commercial momentum and it taking the SIM-only and roaming hit earlier than the other operators

The Times

2 September 2016

Tom Harrington was quoted in an article on the BBC, ITV and other traditional broadcasters who will struggle to attract A-list stars if Netflix and the major streaming giants continue to outspend them on shows. Tom said that the streaming giants are still in their relative infancy and so are splashing out vast sums in a bid to outcompete traditional broadcasters. He added that, as younger viewers turned in increasing numbers to streaming services, terrestrial channels may start to target an older audience with their programming, catering to the ageing demographic of those who prefer traditional scheduled TV.
Further, he said that “what’s happening right now is that it is early days for streaming services and they are rushing to fill their arsenal with programming, you will see a lot of the major talent, the proper movie stars, on the streaming channels, as they are rushing to snap people up. If it’s a head-to-head money-wise [for the biggest names] then the traditional broadcasters will lose.” He added, however, that the current levels of spending from Netflix and Amazon on original series were unsustainable in the long term and that the BBC and ITV could still trade on the “cachet” and prestige of appearing in a flagship prime-time series on terrestrial TV. Tom explained that there is “a lot of life left” in traditional TV schedules, but added: “Watching linear TV is going down, mostly among younger age groups, where streaming is going up... So TV shows may be targeted at an even older demographic.”