Meanwhile, concerns over the future of traditional TV are weighing on the shares. Analysis by research firm Enders found that broadcast TV viewing fell 3%, to two hours 28 minutes per person a day, in 2023 compared with the previous year. Younger audiences were down 80% on pre-pandemic levels.
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Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Karen Egan was quoted in The Telegraph on "The battle to take on BT in Britain’s brutal broadband war"
4 March 2024Karen Egan, head of mobile at Enders Analysis, warns VMO2 faces a “tricky” year ahead.
“On both mobile and fixed the company had significant advantages in the market for a long time – custom plans on mobile and very high speeds on fixed,” she says.
“Those advantages are now largely eroded, making it much more difficult to make headway in the market.”
“Liberty Global tends to take a very financially pragmatic approach to businesses – they don’t let sentimentality get in the way of a good deal,” says Egan.
“Telefonica is likely to have a more strategic view of the UK business, something that aligns well with their other operations around the world.”
Karen Egan was quoted in the Financial Times on "Margherita Della Valle, the woman trying to turn Vodafone around"
4 March 2024“The jury is still out on whether that can turn around,” says Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis. Analysts also expect Vodafone to have to cut its dividend, which may prompt anguish among investors.
Tech at MWC 2024: Putting the smart in phones
1 March 2024Device makers regained their mojo at this year’s MWC, with phones a crucial route to generative AI becoming a daily habit.
AI software has improved and proliferated, but limited differentiation leaves room for consolidation as a competitive funding crunch looms.
Unanswered questions loom large, but won't dim AI's potential.
Viewing trends: BVOD moves into focus
29 February 2024As viewing moves online, broadcasters’ on-demand players make up a growing proportion of viewing, becoming central to their future strategies.
However, even though SVOD viewing might have begun to plateau, BVOD growth cannot yet balance the decline of linear broadcast.
Of this shrinking pie, 2023 saw most of the major broadcast players increase their viewing shares.
Mobile World Congress: Telcos focus on GenAI and investor returns
29 February 2024Many telcos are surprisingly advanced in exploring GenAI opportunities, mainly in gleaning cost efficiencies in managing their complex systems, but it may also provide a revenue boost.
European telco CEOs made a heartfelt—if not entirely convincing—plea for regulatory/policy help via a ‘new deal’ to help support future investment, highlighting a genuine lack of price/investment balance in European telecoms.
The most convincing specific regulatory/policy solution is in-market consolidation, with other steps either less effective, or unlikely to happen, but a general shift in regulatory attitude could prove helpful in many small ways.
Karen Egan was quoted in The Telegraph on "Vodafone in talks to sell Italian arm to rival for £6.8bn"
29 February 2024Karen Egan at Enders Analysis described the sale as a “bold move” that would leave Vodafone’s European operations dominated by the UK and Germany.
She added: “I’m somewhat surprised that they’re leaving Italy altogether given their history there but it’s the right move.”
Vodafone has confirmed that it is in discussions to sell its Italian business to Swisscom for €8bn having rebuffed a higher offer from Iliad for an Italian JV in December.
The Spanish and Italian deals should be reassuring to investors, are helpful to the growth profile of the company, and may help to reduce any conglomerate discount in the share price.
The all-important free cashflow impact of the deals remains to be seen with potential for buybacks of up to €10bn compensating for the direct dilution of the deals and softening the blow of any dividend downgrade in May.
Karen Egan was quoted in the Financial Times Lex column on "Vodafone faces reality with Italian exit — and reality bites back"
28 February 2024Vodafone’s shares have continued to slide this year, reaching multi-decade lows. The group is not managing to get full valuations for its assets. Spain was distinctly underwhelming. Swisscom is paying 5.5 times last year’s Italian ebitda adjusted for lease payments. European telecoms incumbents trade at 7.2 times on the same basis, according to Karen Egan at Enders.