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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Channel 4 was resilient in 2022: highlighted by a 2% YoY drop in total revenues after a record 2021, a quickly growing digital business and a new high for content spend

With privatisation now off the table, in its draft form the Media Bill presents new opportunities and challenges: an “appropriate degree of prominence” on smart TVs and devices, the option to produce content for the first time, and a “sustainability duty”

The effect that these might have is murky without a body of interpretation and mediation, and indeed execution—it appears uncertain whether Channel 4 would begin to produce, with the optics concerning indie producers tricky and accumulation of the required operational skills a long process 

At the heart of the new crisis is an advertising slowdown that is battering the commercial TV sector. Enders Analysis expects the ad market to fall by 10pc in the first half of the year.

Tom Harrington, of Enders Analysis, says: “Given its structure and role, Channel 4 is going to find itself in difficult spots, but there are times when it could probably have been a bit more street smart.”

“Channel 4 has had fewer new shows break through in recent years than its direct competitor,” says Harrington. “Essentially they rely, to a greater extent, on older content.”

“One the one hand, who would want that job? There are just so many people to keep happy and none of them ever are,” says Karen Egan at Enders Analysis.



“But on the other hand it could be really quite a good time to take over. The whole BT story has so far been one of huge expense and not a lot of upside, but give it three to five years and it could look really different.”

Karen says the new chief executive must also place more focus on selling the story of full-fibre broadband to investors, who see it as a costly exercise generating little return.

 

According to Karen Egan, senior telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis: “The future for BT is all about the switch to full fibre. This is the painful part, where they are spending lots of money and haven’t got much in the way of upside, but that can change quite markedly when they get over the hump of the spend and the narrative could be very different. BT could do a better job of telling the story, but there is a good story there to tell.”

EE appears to be soft-launching split contracts—it will become the final UK operator to offer these deals.

Split contracts are popular and particularly useful for higher-end handsets as they allow consumers to pay off their device over a longer period, dramatically reducing their monthly payments.

Wider availability of split contracts will take some of the shine off O2 and Vodafone's offerings, having been a key point of differentiation for O2 for many years, and a driver of growth for Vodafone more recently.

A new era is starting for the big consumer tech companies, as they venture outside of their traditional comfort zones to bet on future growth—most obviously in AI, and then cloud, gaming, headsets and video.

Competition in the tech space is intensifying as incumbents go head-to-head in new revenue growth areas also populated by insurgent startups—their M&A watched closely by competition regulators.

Fat profit margins have ensured vast financial resources are available to pour into competition, but hitting the right targets for consumer engagement is key to success.

Smart speakers were "selling like hot cakes" a few years ago, but now sales have come back down, according to Joseph Teasdale, head of tech at Enders Analysis.

He said people do not tend to replace them once they have one, and "maybe you buy a second device for the kitchen, but not much more than that".

But more importantly, "smart speakers just aren't that smart", Mr Teasdale added.

"They're great if you want to set a timer, find out the weather forecast, or listen to the radio. But they're a long way from an all-purpose artificial intelligence assistant," he said.

"If you don't word your request just right, they don't understand you, and half the time they can't do what you want them to anyway."

Channel 4’s issues, according to Tom Harrington of Enders Analysis, are “one part market forces, one part existing commissioning changing and one part the fact that Channel 4 is always under greater scrutiny by producers, the media and government. If ITV cancels stuff or — as it is at the moment — delays broadcasting shows they already have stockpiled because they pay for the shows when they go out, no one kicks up a fuss. The truth is, the entire British TV industry is facing a very tough year.”

Douglas McCabe, an analyst at Enders, said that City AM was likely to fetch a “very small” price because it was almost certainly a loss-making business, but that this would depend on what value a buyer would put on the brand and its readership. He said:

“If a buyer was going to put in money it’s because they believe they can do something with it as a digital brand. Free print media is tough. The pandemic has removed commuting in scale across the City across the five days but Brexit has also affected the paper’s corporate advertising.”