“The App Store aside, Apple’s other big services like Music, TV+ and Arcade are all smaller players in their sectors so you wouldn’t expect them to support a huge ads business even if ads were switched on,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “There have been reports of Apple considering an ads tier on Apple TV+, one benefit might be to extend the reach of the product and maintain its market relevance while plugging some of the content spend deficit, but this would still be a tiny player in the context of the US or UK TV advertising markets.”

 

"Being a broadcaster is a profession," insists François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. "You have to set up a studio, recruit animators, create an efficient 4K broadcasting system, create a payment solution, find advertisers..."

"It is actually very difficult to build up a direct subscriber base and it would take the LFP several years," emphasizes François Godard.

"The League would then have to enter into contracts with telecom operators who have the leverage to sell subscriptions, but this would be done under conditions that would surely be unfavorable to the LFP, which is starting from scratch with this project," adds the expert, who is relatively pessimistic about the viability of this solution.

François Godard, an analyst with Enders Analysis, added that starting a channel from scratch was risky.

“If the league wanted to launch their own channel, I think it’s a dead end. You’ll end up doing contracts with Canal+ and DAZN to distribute it, so it’s back to square one,” he said. “And it’s not a business you’re good at as a league.”

Niamh Burns, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis, told The Media Leader that the latest Bellwether’s main media splits “encapsulate the theme that has characterised the last decade: online is growing (though modestly here) while everyone else is under pressure”.

She added: “This is a well-worn path for business as budgets are squeezed: a flight to direct-response channels, which offer more certainty in the short term.”

 

“A streamer tax is never, never going to happen [in the U.K.], forget about it,” says Claire Enders, founder of media research group Enders Analysis. “Netflix invested $6 billion in U.K. production, they aren’t stealing anything, they are writing checks to good people.” With British public broadcasters under pressure from rising costs and budget constraints and commercial networks suffering from a chronically-weak ad market, she notes, “we are absolutely lucky to have Netflix, Disney+ and anyone else who wants to make shows here.”

“Europe isn’t moving, but the U.K. will acquiesce to all the demands of the Americans in the digital space,” says Enders

Even this option wouldn't be a perfect solution for the LFP, given the degradation of the "L1 product" since the Mediapro incident. Since then, viewership has declined and rights prices have plummeted. "L1 needs to rebuild its brand, and to do that, the option of broadcasting on free TV shouldn't be ruled out," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. "At the current price, I'm convinced that TF1 could buy one match per week, or even ten matches per season. And the rest would remain on a paid service. This would be the real way to get out of the rut and rebuild the bond with the French people."

 

But few analysts believe the scale of the cost increases was predicted. “I’m not sure anyone would have put together a model with a 46 per cent tariff, so this is going to be the key question as in the US market they may well have to move the price,” says Gareth Sutcliffe at Enders Analysis.

The industry, however, welcomes the relatively high pricing of the games — hoping that it sets a new standard. “Nintendo can clearly move its pricing on its top franchises,” says Sutcliffe. “That is clearly the new premium price point for all AAA games and they are providing premium games.”

Gaming revenue has been broadly flat for several years, according to Sutcliffe of Enders Analysis, with software sales compensating for declining demand for ageing Xbox and PlayStation consoles.